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Discussion in 'National' started by Bixbyte, Nov 9, 2016.
The national polls were accurate. But thank you, this says more than you may realize.
Oh really? Do tell:
Source: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
Aren't those polls a reflection of the popular vote? Hillary won said vote by about 3 million people, so it seems they were accurate. I don't recall polling being based on the electoral college results. How would you even poll that?
True, however 3M votes is 2 points, which only a couple polls were close to. Take out the LA Times (who were pretty much the only ones consistently predicting a Trump win far ahead of time) and IBD/TIPP, and you've got a bunch of polls at double or triple the margin.
True, they over estimated the popular vote outcome. But they were still correct in that she won the popular vote. Their overestimating the margin of (popular) victory hardly seem to be reason enough to doubt the entire process.
Considering the MoE, or Margin of Error is in most of those cases large enough to swing the vote to trump, those polls should not be considered "wrong," although they certainly weren't exact, and one could argue how close they were, but they are within their margins of error, and so were not wrong.
What one REALLY needs to look at is the state by state polls. Which I think you will find to also be within their margins of error. The fact is that this was a crazy election. We KNOW Russia was targeting specific people in specific swing states at the last minute, that definitely affected the polls. And there were a lot of undecided people, even late, to the extent that undecided people ended up voting for trump (probably disproportionately, since WikiLeaks was releasing Hillary emails at a steady clip) their votes also probably affected the polls.
Editorial: When the ink is dry on the history of this election, we will see many, many factors that led to the election of this con man. Russian efforts will be linked to more than one of them. Judging from the total chaos and unraveling going on right now, I'd say they get what they bargained for.
Here are the state by state polls (obv not all of them) sorted by each states chance of tipping the election. So basically these are the swing states. Look at the tiny sliver of red on PA, MI, WI, MN. But keep in mind that box represents 80% of the predicted outcomes. There is still another 20% outside that box.
Granted, this format is not the best for my purposes.
WOW Trump knows how to make News!
Here is the New headline: TRUMP throws a bomb
Analysis | The Daily 202: Throwing a bomb into the insurance markets, Trump now owns the broken health-care system
This guy has no idea how to be successful in Washington. Treat everyone like an asshole and break everything is not a winning leadership style. However, I'm not sure people are smart enough to connect the dots on Trump undermining the market, and the market collapsing.
"A backlash against President Trump — including from fellow Republicans — was brewing as lawmakers voiced concern over how ending the subsidies would affect their constituents."
What is your argument? You're showing me a list of 10 polls, 7 of which accurately predicted the result within the margin of error for the poll. The other 3 are outside by fractions of a percent (and the furthest one is the LA Times at 0.6%). How does that convince me - or anyone - that the polls were not accurate?
Exactly. He's destroying it so he can say: "See, I told you it would implode! I told you it was a disaster!" And they will willfully NOT connect the dots, never connect the dots. Never, ever.
It's a cult.
HOW COULD THEY CONNECT?? THEY'RE DOTS!!!
By definition they don't connect!!!
BUT That's HIM! Trump says he meets with the President of USVI
Come on Trump made a Joke. He didn't forget, Did he?
My wife's calling Trump a malignant Narcissist. No way.
Trump Says He Met With the President of the Virgin Islands. But That's Him
President Trump appeared to forget that the U.S. Virgin Islands falls under his jurisdiction during a speech Friday.
"I met with the president of the Virgin Islands," Trump said while speaking about a spate of natural disasters that have hit the U.S. and its territories in recent weeks at the annual Values Voter Summit.
Trump Says He Met With the President of the Virgin Islands. But That's Him
It’s all a big joke to the hypocritical morons who elected a petulant moron to surrender America’s leadership to China and undermine her alliances.
Everything is a damn joke. Get enough dumb remarks excused as jokes and you get a madman, a stupid madman.
Poor poor Clinton voters, losers have no sense of humor
Kellyanne Conway Morphed Into Pennywise On 'SNL' And It's Terrifying
“I would rarely leave the White House because there’s so much work to be done,” Trump told The Hill in 2015.
“I would not be a president who took vacations. I would not be a president that takes time off.” While campaigning for the presidency in 2016, Trump said to the American people: “I’m going to be working for you. I’m not going to have time to go play golf.” In point of fact, according to a report in USA Today, Trump only spent five of his first 26 weekends as president holed up exclusively in the White House. The rest entailed trips to his nearby golf clubs. In early August 2017, CBS News White House correspondent Mark Knoller toted up how many days Trump had spent away from the White House versus the number of days Obama spent offsite and found that Trump’s total, at all or part of 41 days away from Washington, was nearly twice Obama’s, at all or part of 21 days away (although George W. Bush had them both beat at 61 days away).
Judicial Watch, who have vowed to monitor Trump’s travel expenses as closely as they did Obama’s (FOIA requests are already on file), reported in July 2017 that two months into Trump’s presidency taxpayers were already on the hook for $3.58 million in charges for air travel alone (i.e., excluding auxiliary costs such as Secret Service housing, local transporation, police protection, etc.) by the president, first lady, and vice president during February and March. That’s roughly $1.8 million per month, $700,000 more than the Obamas’ monthly average, which included the auxiliary costs we don’t yet have for Trump.
Focusing just on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago trips, of which there were seven between Inauguration Day and mid-August 2017, an attempt at a more comprehensive estimate by the progressive watchdog group Center for American Progress Action Fund settled on a cost of roughly $3 million per trip — a total of $21 million for all of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago stays through August, amounting to $2.6 million per month). The reliability of that estimate has been rightly called into question, given that it was generalized from a Government Accountability Office report written well before Trump took office, but it is indicative of how high the Trump family’s travel costs — when they are updated to include actual Secret Service expenses and incidentals might well go.
Also indicative is a USA Today report that in addition to his Mar-a-Lago residencies, as of 21 August Trump had racked up five visits to his private golf club in New Jersey. At these two locations, the Secret Service spent $60,000 on rent for the golf carts needed to protect the president. If that pattern continues, American taxpayers can expect to be dinged for as much as $103,000 per year in golf cart rentals alone.
Will Trump Call for an investigation into the Chicago Art Institute? I guess they can just say whatever they want!?!? Somebody needs to look into that.
WHO HAS THE REAL RENOIR?!? maybe there is no “real” Renoir, and the truth is just what most people think.
Trump biographer, Chicago Art Institute say Trump Renoir painting not real - CNNPolitics