Phillies 2012

[NickFromGtown]

I have no problem with Amaro. We all knew he was doing a "win now" strategy since World Series II and most of us were fine with that.

My problem with Amaro is that he doesn't know how to evaluate talent. He gives out terrible contracts to Ibanez, Howard, Baez, and Papelbon while not signing one of his best players (Hamels) before he enters mega-bonanza contract zone. Read this article at Crashburn Alley as it sums things up excellently:

Crashburn Alley » Blog Archive » Ruben Amaro’s Greatest Hits

We played Raul Ibanez instead of playing Domonic Brown. And now we play Juan Pierre instead of Domonic Brown. Why were we saving Domonic Brown all these years? Maybe we can wait to bring him up once he is in his prime so we can have a very biased and rosy picture of him and then give him a huge contract right as he starts the downslide of his career.

Cliff Lee - at a very affordable contract - was traded away for 3 questionable, not major league readily prospects only to sign him back later and lose a draft pick in the process and not have him pitch with Halladay and Hamels for an extra year.

I could go on and on, but the fact is that Amaro needs to be viewed with much caution if not outright apprehension.

[HomeInspectorBC]

Now is no time for a fire sale and with the imminent return of Hallday and Howard the Phillies are in a prime position to make some moves to help the club. Because teams can sign Hamels at the end of the year his trade value has diminished a bit, the Phils will still get some very good value in return for Hamels but not the same as if he were under contract. If Hamels wants to stay in Philly then I would move Hallday or Lee if possible for some position player prospects and a middle reliever and use that money to sign Hamels.

Moving Wigginton or Pierre may also get you a middle reliever, but what about Pence, does the emergence of Ruiz as an offensive weapon( which I completely blew on my preseason predictions) and the return of Utley/Howard make Pence dispensable which could also fetch some prospects and a middle reliever? Dumping his salary can also help pay for Hamels or a third baseman or centerfielder next year. If I were the Phillies I would shop Pence around to see if anybody is willing to part with some good pieces to get him as well as do away with those God-awful bread commercials.

The Philles are not that far away and need to add some pieces instead of blowing the whole thing up and I think the Philles are in a position to have a pretty good second half. Does anybody else see any possible moves to salvage this season? I believe the Phillies have to move one of the big 3 pitchers and maybe Pence to start replacing older position players with major league ready position player prospects a little at a time to stay competitive over the next couple of seasons and that keeping Hamels over Halladay or Lee should be the top priority.

The ball is in Amaro's court and the next couple of moves will be a high wire balancing act with no net that will test the mettle of Amaro and show his true value or lack of value as a GM as anybody can throw boatloads of money at free agents/players to get them to sign except of course Ed Wade or Ruly Carpenter.

[Outlaw Star]

The problem is that Hamels is, unfortunately, the most movable of the Big 3 pitchers.

Lee? He's pitching like complete dog@^#%$, and has a huge contract to boot. What team is going to take that on for a pitcher who's been, frankly, mediocre?

Halladay? More team-friendly deal, sure, but he's still hurt, and I haven't heard a timetable for his return. Good luck trying to move him now.

Hamels is young, pitching well, and has a reasonable contract. Yeah, he'd be a rental, but that doesn't mean we couldn't get a lot in return with the right deal. (Whether Amaro is the right person to make that deal is another story.) I'm not advocating that we trade Hamels, but I don't see how we can afford to pay him what he'll command on the open market. We already have 3 players earning 20+ mil a year; there's no way we can add another.

Sadly, this season appears to be a lost one. Utley came back and we've been playing worse than ever. What's a gimpy Howard supposed to do, if he even makes it back relatively soon? Halladay's a difference-maker if healthy, but we don't know how he'll bounce back. Even if he does, we've still got a ton of holes (especially bullpen), and no easy options to correct them. We only have the money to sign reclamation projects from the scrap heap, and with our barren farm system we don't have prospects to trade for anyone. "Win now" is great, but it needs to be managed so you don't totally gut the future. Doesn't seem like Amaro has mastered that.

[raider.adam]

Sadly, this season appears to be a lost one. Utley came back and we've been playing worse than ever. What's a gimpy Howard supposed to do, if he even makes it back relatively soon? Halladay's a difference-maker if healthy, but we don't know how he'll bounce back. Even if he does, we've still got a ton of holes (especially bullpen), and no easy options to correct them. We only have the money to sign reclamation projects from the scrap heap, and with our barren farm system we don't have prospects to trade for anyone. "Win now" is great, but it needs to be managed so you don't totally gut the future. Doesn't seem like Amaro has mastered that.

Unless they start making a run in July, yeah, I think they are going to start focusing on 2013.

[HomeInspectorBC]

Man, that one hurt, nuff said.

[RainboTeabagger]

Man, that one hurt, nuff said.

Why? Seasons been done for a month now. Hopefully this will encourage that brain dead GM to trade some of these idiots.

[emoney]

Trading Hamels Makes Sense | Brotherly Glove

...Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports already linked Hamels to the Rangers, who are scouting him and Zack Greinke. Morosi identified third-base prospect Mike Olt as a fit for the Phillies, who are looking for a long-term solution at the position. The Rangers are flush with prospects but have an excellent organizational model that allows them to compete now and into the future, even if they were to trade several prospects to the Phillies.

...suggesting that a deal could potentially get struck if the Rangers sent Olt, LHP Martin Perez, RHP Cody Buckel, LHP Victor Payano and SS Hanser Alberto. Newberg also suggested that the Phils could also go for a young, talented and controllable major league starter like Matt Harrison along with LHP Chad Bell and 2B Rougned Odor.

[HomeInspectorBC]

E-A-G-L-E-S, IGGLES,

Lee with his contract is a challenge to trade unless the Phils assume some of his contract which defeats the purpose of trading him, Halliday with his injury is most likely untradeable until the off season. Blanton at the end of the year frees up 8.5 mil, Contreras 2.5 mil, Polanco 6.25 mil, Victorino 9.5 mil for a total of 26.75 mil to fill third base, center/left and set up relievers. If the Phils ending up trading Hamels it will be difficult to keep Amaro who has painted the Phils into a corner to have their best asset become expendable and unsigned and still have such large gapping holes.

I have been hearing that this year the Phils are not doing the little things to win games, too many mistakes, the Phillies under Manuel were never a fundamentally sound team often getting picked off, getting thrown out trying to take or steal an extra base at the wrong times, throwing to the wrong base, and never played small ball, but were so talented they could overcome those deficiencies, this year they are not that talented and because they are losing those little things are magnified.

The next three weeks are going to play a large part in shaping the Phils for the next 3-5 years, since taking over as GM Amaro has the same tendencies as a shopaholic while gutting the farm system of position players, now we will see if he can be a full service GM. Unfortunately desparation moves like returning Howard before he is ready, and looks like a 50 year old out of shape softball player are not the moves that are going to move the Phils forward; and why risk reinjuring another 25 mil a year player to fill a couple of seats, it is time to retool for next year. At least one team in PA is on track to make the playoffs and it is nice to see the Pirates have a winning season after such a long downturn.

As Walter Cronkite used to say, "and that's the way it is".

[Swinefeld]

It's hard to believe this team won 102 games just last season. I mean, I know the window was closing, but the damn thing slammed shut.

[eldondre]

It's hard to believe this team won 102 games just last season. I mean, I know the window was closing, but the damn thing slammed shut.

I don't know that it's that simple. the difference between being in contention and being where they are isn't that large, basically a reliable bullpen. with a reliable pen, they'd be in a position to make a run should utley and howard produce (even if that's unlikely). there's no reason they can't post a losing season and come back next year and contend but they can't have utley and howard out, mayberry in left, and polanco not being the same hitter. look at the cards, world series one year, losing season the next, and four years later, another title. odds are that sometimes things aren't going to go your way. one thing that has gotten worse every year, it seems, is the pen.

Now finally finding his groove, Durbin, 30, has a 1.95 E.R.A. over 73 2/3 innings because he has emphasized staying ahead of hitters, he said.

Durbin and Lidge are far from the only guys getting the job done in the late innings. J. C. Romero (2.29 E.R.A.), Ryan Madson (3.16), Clay Condrey (3.49) and Rudy Seanez (3.38) have all had plenty to say as the Phillies look to repeat their division title.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/27/sp...27bullpen.html

[raider.adam]

Yeah, I don't think the hitting is all that different from last year. The difference is everything falls apart after the starter gets replaced.

[sometimesilie]

I'm prob in the minority, but I still believe the Phil's will make a serious run at a playoff spot. The last 2 WS champs weren't even close to making the playoffs until late September.

They still have the core of the team that won 102 games last year. They still have 3 of the best starting pitchers in baseball and a stud closer. I can't believe a team with this much talent- even aging, and injured talent- is that much worse than the competition. IMO this team is as far down as it's going to get.

If they can stay at full strength for most of the second half, they're going to make it interesting. If they do wind up contending for a WC spot it's going to be way more interesting than watching a 102 game winner waltz complacently into the post season.

[#1MetsFan]

Ok, I'm ready to change my tune. My rebuilding plan: (1) Trade Hamels to the Rangers for Olt and Leonys Martin (I think that's pretty much the only deal I'd do). Olt is your starting 3B next season, and Martin is your CF of the future. (2) Resign Hamels in the offseason, Cliff Lee style. (3) Call up Dom Brown to be your LF for the rest of this season (and the future).

[HomeInspectorBC]

If they bring up Dom Brown, then they should trade Pierre for a good double a position player prospect as well.

[darthsinatra]

Four W in a row, decent start for Halladay's return, bats looking more lively. Utley looks close to 100%. Howard questionable. Chooch having a career year. Still 13 back and 10 under .500. Any chance? Any glimmer of hope for the 2nd half?

[raider.adam]

Four W in a row, decent start for Halladay's return, bats looking more lively. Utley looks close to 100%. Howard questionable. Chooch having a career year. Still 13 back and 10 under .500. Any chance? Any glimmer of hope for the 2nd half?

They have to keep playing ball like the last 5 games (not relying on the bullpen). It is estimated they will need to win almost 70% of their remaining games to make a run for the playoffs if the other teams keep their current pace.

That's a big hurdle. God I would love to see them make that type of run though.

[HomeInspectorBC]

To get to 90 wins the Phils would have to go 49-14 which is a 780 win percentage and hoping that 10 teams ahead of you slow down enough for you to catch them, a pretty tall order. The second half should be much more enjoyable to watch then the first half but it is time for the Phils to start making tracks for next season. They should sign Hamels now, hope Halladay stays healthy and try to move him at the end of the season for some player position prospects. Moving Lee with that contract is next to impossible. Resigning Victorino at the end of the year might be the best/most affordable option out there leaving third base and relief pitching voids to be filled which is much more manageable, I for one am happy with Pierre in left and don't have a problem if they stand pat with him for one more season while giving Dom Brown every chance to earn the starting position next spring training and giving Dom Brown lots of playing time in August/Sept to show his wares.

If I am the Phillies I am standing pat at the trade deadline which might not be popular with the fans unless someone blows me out of the water with an offer and then try to resign Ryan Madson who should also be more affordable or at least two bullben set up men in the offseason while searching for a serviceable third basemen for next year. The core of this team has one-two years left in the tank and it is time to start grooming replacements in the minor leagues to take over in the next couple of years while keeping a pulse on the potential free agent market two years out.

Would you trade Halladay at the trade deadline if it freed up enough money to make a run at Josh Hamilton in the offseason? or are people still married to Doc at all costs?

[#1MetsFan]

Ok, I'm ready to change my tune. My rebuilding plan: (1) Trade Hamels to the Rangers for Olt and Leonys Martin (I think that's pretty much the only deal I'd do). Olt is your starting 3B next season, and Martin is your CF of the future. (2) Resign Hamels in the offseason, Cliff Lee style. (3) Call up Dom Brown to be your LF for the rest of this season (and the future).

^ This is still my vote.

And I think it's reasonable to ask the Rangers for two A-level prospects who aren't Jurickson Profar.

You instantly improve the lineup for next year with Olt at 3B and Martin at CF. Dom Brown becomes the LF. That's a quick infusion of youth to complement the aging core of Utley/Howard/Rollins/Ruiz.

Then you make a run at Hamels in free agency, and if that doesn't work out, maybe you try to spend that money on Hamilton and then trade Pence.

[Zep]

Didn't they just offer him $130M over 6 years? He hasn't accepted?

[#1MetsFan]

He's "conflicted."