Unfortunatley I Really Think Mitt Will Win in 13 Days

**NickTheCage** · 10-23-2012, 11:29 AM

No incumbent or candidate who thought they were on a path to winning would have behaved like that last night. Surprisingly he looked really desperate last night and it was on a FP debate when much of the countries minds are on the economy. Awhile back he made the decision to make his re-election about Mitt, most importantly if Mitt is electable, instead of his own policies the past 4 years.

IMHO, in the eyes of America, Mitt has passed the litmus test, both domestically and in FP, at the same time re-enforcing to America why they have been so miserable for the past 4 years. Axe, Bam and Co haven't been able to have a coherent retort and have demeaned themselves and the presidency to the level of a city council debate. Bam is stuck with school child speeches about big bird, binders and Romnesia while doing to damage to the main message of Mittens.

This is not the behavior of a candidate who thinks he is going to have a chance and reeks of desperation.

**NickTheCage** · 10-23-2012, 12:43 PM

The line a candidate always states when know they are losing ..

"I don't want to lose this election.

Not because of what losing would mean for me -- Michelle and I will be fine no matter what happens."

**Naveen** · 10-23-2012, 01:10 PM

The "experts" say Romney will win. The polls are showing an Obama win. An interesting read:

They Can't Both Be Right: 'Savvy' Experts vs. Polls - James Fallows - The Atlantic

From Johnathan Chait:

Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy....

Obama's lead is narrow -- narrow enough that the polling might well be wrong and Romney could win. But he is leading, his lead is not declining, and the widespread perception that Romney is pulling ahead is Romney's campaign suckering the press corps with a confidence game.

Romney could win. But I still think it's Obama's to lose.

**NickTheCage** · 10-23-2012, 02:31 PM

On this day in 2008 ..

Rassmussen: Obama +7
Gallup: Obama +6

But Politburo will tell you quote Nate Silver b/ he 'has the best explanation and analysis' .. "that they missed badly"

lol

**Gladys** · 10-23-2012, 02:39 PM

Obama is winning.

**hammersklavier** · 10-23-2012, 02:47 PM

I missed the debate but from what I found it looked like Obama won. By a lot. Live bloggers and so on felt like Mitt was on the defensive all night (to put it mildly), and post-debate polls showed that, on average, 10% more people felt Obama won than Romney...Generally, it seems that the only major demographic Obama failed to win over was the "angry white man", i.e. the Republicans' core demographic.

**jdhill** · 10-23-2012, 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by hammersklavier

I missed the debate but from what I found it looked like Obama won. By a lot. Live bloggers and so on felt like Mitt was on the defensive all night (to put it mildly), and post-debate polls showed that, on average, 10% more people felt Obama won than Romney...Generally, it seems that the only major demographic Obama failed to win over was the "angry white man", i.e. the Republicans' core demographic.

How about a little perspective? Three weeks ago we were waiting for the first debate. Polls showed that Obama was expected to "win" the debate by a 2:1 ratio and many thought Romney was on the ropes, with the debates likely to be the death knell to his campaign. Obama had a 156 electoral vote lead in the RCP average and a 4.1% lead over Romney in polls.

Three weeks later, the left is doing back-flips, suggesting that Obama won 48% to 40% (or "by a lot" according to you). Meanwhile Obama's lead in the RCP average has dropped to 24 votes, and Romney has taken a lead in polls. Even after the final debate, CNN polled that those more likely to vote for Romney as a result of debate #3 was slightly higher than those more likely to vote for Obama (25% to 24%). Neither debate 2 or 3, nor the VP debate has altered Romney's trajectory, and the left knows it.

Obama is limping to the finish line, borrowing money from BOA to continue his campaign and scrambling to re-assign resources behind the newest "firewall" states. He could still win, but nothing he's done in debates, none of his "Romnesia" silliness, and none of his attacking Romney directly appears to be helping him.

**NickTheCage** · 10-23-2012, 03:51 PM

Originally Posted by Gladys

Obama is winning.

I hope ur right but when Nate Silver has Bam with a 70% chance and still had him winning NC as of last Friday .. I think I'm right

**NickTheCage** · 10-23-2012, 04:04 PM

Here is the full email sent out to supporters

I don’t want to lose this election.

Not because of what losing would mean for me — Michelle and I will be fine no matter what happens.

But because of what it would mean for our country and middle-class families.

This race is very close.I’m not willing to watch the progress you and I worked so hard to achieve be undone.

Time is running out to make an impact — please don’t wait any longer. Donate $5 or more today:…

I believe in you. If you stick with me, and if we fight harder than ever for the next two weeks, I truly believe we can’t lose.

Thank you,

Barack

P.S. — I don’t know what Election Night will hold, but I’d like you to be a part of the event here in Chicago. Any donation you make today automatically enters you for a chance to meet me — airfare and hotel for you and a guest are covered

More from today:

"We've come up with a name for this condition. It’s called Romnesia."

"If you say that you love American cars during a debate—but you wrote an article titled 'Let Detroit Go Bankrupt' you might have Romnesia."

"We had a severe outbreak last night—it was at least stage 3 Romnesia."

"If you say you love Medicare, but your plan turns it into a voucher that ends the guaranteed benefit of Medicare—you've got Romnesia."

"We joke about Romnesia. But this is about trust. And there’s no more serious issue in a presidential campaign than trust."

Sound like a campaign that is confident?

Seriously; this is the President of the United States .. is this real life?

**Voodoo** · 10-23-2012, 04:34 PM

Fortunately I Really Think NickTheCage Will Disappear in 13 Days

**PASnow** · 10-23-2012, 04:54 PM

The biggest factor remaining will likely be the October jobs report, to be released Nov 2nd. If unemployment goes down Romneys toast, if it goes up it'll be bad for Obama, especially if it were to go up by about .5% or more.

Typically however, I would think this time of year is usually very good for unemployment since holiday hiring tends to pick up, but we'll see. Gas prices starting to drop will also likely help Obama a bit. The 3rd debate is usually not impactful at all.

**2happy4u** · 10-23-2012, 05:49 PM

Obama is very desperate now. It didn't take much to see the anger he has inside of him. I just watched his speech in Ohio and he was begging his base to please go vote NOW. we have early voting in Ohio. The other fact I noticed, today while driving through the burbs, 2 Obama lawn signs compared to about 100 Romney. In 08 these homes were littered with Obama signs.I can't see him winning PA. The way I see it, he had his shot, and all he did was spend over 5 trillion tax dollars on failed programs. Last year he sunk over a trillion on welfare programs. Taxing rich people won't fix his disaster. Lets just admit it, we placed a leftest-liberal community organizer as a leader of the country. What did people really expect ????

**NickTheCage** · 10-23-2012, 06:02 PM

Originally Posted by Voodoo

Fortunately I Really Think NickTheCage Will Disappear in 13 Days

Why?

**AsYouWere** · 10-23-2012, 06:16 PM

Witty Mitt came across last night as having another of his outer-body experiences kinda like what we can watch on Outer Limits reruns.
No one expected that during the heat of a third Presidential Debate he would start agreeing with Obama on almost every point. He seems like semi-solid co-VP material sharing an office with Uncle Joe.

**ArcticSplash** · 10-23-2012, 06:20 PM

I stopped watching after the VP debates.

Voting Johnson and I don't care if Johnson leans harder to the right than Romney. Obama/Romney are basically the same dude and they are too statist for my liking.

Go to PoliticalCompass.org

They're both right-leaning statists. Just because Obama is slightly more left, conservatives paint him as being Che Guevara. That's a stretch.

(for the record, I'm a center-left Libertarian)

**NickTheCage** · 10-23-2012, 06:54 PM

Originally Posted by ArcticSplash

I stopped watching after the VP debates.

Voting Johnson and I don't care if Johnson leans harder to the right than Romney. Obama/Romney are basically the same dude and they are too statist for my liking.

Go to PoliticalCompass.org

They're both right-leaning statists. Just because Obama is slightly more left, conservatives paint him as being Che Guevara. That's a stretch.

(for the record, I'm a center-left Libertarian)

If you're a center left libertarian I would gather you are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. If true, GJ should be right up you alley.

Speaking of leaning harder 'right' ... what social, civil liberty, and FP is harder right than Mittens?

And they are both left leaning statists not right.

**Jerry19127** · 10-23-2012, 06:56 PM

How arrogant and insecure can you be to turn around and say, that no matter what happens , you will be fine. Does the average American f&^$%n care what he does if he's not elected ? He's supposed to be the President...not a celebrity.

**Giavella Water** · 10-23-2012, 07:06 PM

Originally Posted by 2happy4u

Obama is very desperate now. It didn't take much to see the anger he has inside of him. I just watched his speech in Ohio and he was begging his base to please go vote NOW. we have early voting in Ohio. The other fact I noticed, today while driving through the burbs, 2 Obama lawn signs compared to about 100 Romney. In 08 these homes were littered with Obama signs.I can't see him winning PA. The way I see it, he had his shot, and all he did was spend over 5 trillion tax dollars on failed programs. Last year he sunk over a trillion on welfare programs. Taxing rich people won't fix his disaster. Lets just admit it, we placed a leftest-liberal community organizer as a leader of the country. What did people really expect ????

What did the people expect? They made themselves feel good that they voted in a half black person in the white house. I guess all the horrible things that Obama wrote in his books and all the horrible people he associated with they ignored. The same thing happened in the 1930's to those who didn't read Mein Kampf or read it and ignored it.

**hkp** · 10-23-2012, 07:08 PM

It's weird that certain people on this site almost never actually have anything to say about Philadelphia.

**Jerry19127** · 10-23-2012, 07:10 PM

Romney is going to win by default. No one is excited about Obama. He doesn't really have an impressive record and he isn't making any strides. There are a lot of people that are going to walk in the booth and won't have the heart to pull the lever for him. Reagan was behind Carter in the polls in September and he won. Repeat of history.