Unfortunatley I Really Think Mitt Will Win in 13 Days

[AsYouWere]

I've been trying. My advances have gotten me nowhere though.

Congrats on not writing "Water's" too.

I'm not used to there being two Castros and what their endorsement of Obama has to do with anything is another point for your "Detective" firm to investigate.

Oh congrats to you also on the race-baiting Halloween thread you started, it's a real hit.

[Marquis]

I'm not used to there being two Castros and what their endorsement of Obama has to do with anything is another point for your "Detective" firm to investigate.

Oh congrats to you also on the race-baiting Halloween thread you started, it's a real hit.

I know! I should start a Thanksgiving thread next week. Keep an eye out for that.

[AsYouWere]

I know! I should start a Thanksgiving thread next week. Keep an eye out for that.

Please spare us
Do you have a call on what the House and Senate majorities will be? With all the presidential talk the legislative branch sort of got forgotten.
I haven't checked the predictions myself but Congress carries a big stick also as we've seen.

[RittenhouseGirl]

If Romney wins, it will just give people who hate white men more to complain about. If Obama wins, it will just give people who hate black men more to complain about. Either way, we are in for constant bitching, as usual.

Of course, for me, I'm at home with corporate, white, and stuffy.

[boognish]

Of course. Don't forget to take your Eskalith.

[Marquis]

Please spare us
Do you have a call on what the House and Senate majorities will be? With all the presidential talk the legislative branch sort of got forgotten.
I haven't checked the predictions myself but Congress carries a big stick also as we've seen.

I am not 100% sure, but I think our candidates will win as the other guys are bad for the country.

[AsYouWere]

I'm rooting for our candidates also, hell I'll probably even vote.

[NickTheCage]

I'm starting to think the key state to next Tues is turning out to be Wisky not Ohio ... plus for Mittens

More republic and more white electorate plus the GOP has the infrastructure in place to identify and haul out to the polls every registered GOP’r in the state.

[PhillyCuse]

I hope ur right but when Nate Silver has Bam with a 70% chance and still had him winning NC as of last Friday .. I think I'm right

?? Why does that make you pessimistic about his chances? Silver is awesome.

[NickTheCage]

Quote Originally Posted by NickTheCage View Post

I hope ur right but when Nate Silver has Bam with a 70% chance and still had him winning NC as of last Friday .. I think I'm right

?? Why does that make you pessimistic about his chances? Silver is awesome.

I lulz'd

How can anyone take a guy who says D+9 polls are "republican-friendly" or "republican-leaning"?

Guy is a fraud and only tools hold onto his blog as it is means anything serious.

[NickTheCage]

Oh right, Romney agrees with 90% of Obummers sucky policies, both domestic and foreign, and is a Socialist.

For starters

Can you tell me where he is cutting the size of govt?

Will he run $1+T deficits?

What is he proposing for the car companies should/when they go bankrupt again?

Discuss?

[BarryG]

I lulz'd

How can anyone take a guy who says D+9 polls are "republican-friendly" or "republican-leaning"?

Guy is a fraud and only tools hold onto his blog as it is means anything serious.

Didn't Silver get 49 states right in 2008? Why is he a fraud and why should we listen to you? You have managed to debunk every single poll and indicator that puts Obama as winner. Wonder why you don't have your own blog since you are so much smarter than everyone.

[NickTheCage]

Didn't Silver get 49 states right in 2008? Why is he a fraud and why should we listen to you? You have managed to debunk every single poll and indicator that puts Obama as winner. Wonder why you don't have your own blog since you are so much smarter than everyone.

And in 2010, using 2008 models, he said there was a 70% chance the GOP would gain 50 -59 seats in the house, whats ur point? You could list all the states today and I can accurately hit 90% for next Tuesday. I mean approx 80 are guaranteed to go 0 or M, and go D or R every POTUS election.

He’s a hack and doesn’t use models he doesn't like. He decides which polls to put more weight behind to comply his own average, the complete opposite to RCP which is more credible and realistic. When he does not agree with the outcome he labels a poll “repubican leaning” even when they're polls were highly oversampling dems; something I noticed all the way back in August when he was pointing to polls from OH and VA.

Unless he moves his models to the realities that are 10/30/12, any credibility that he pick up in 2008 will be flushed down the toilet. He will be put in the same class as PPP.

[BarryG]

And in 2010, using 2008 models, he said there was a 70% chance the GOP would gain 50 -59 seats in the house, whats ur point? You could list all the states today and I can accurately hit 90% for next Tuesday. I mean approx 80 are guaranteed to go 0 or M, and go D or R every POTUS election.

He’s a hack and doesn’t use models he doesn't like. He decides which polls to put more weight behind to comply his own average, the complete opposite to RCP which is more credible and realistic. When he does not agree with the outcome he labels a poll “repubican leaning” even when they're polls were highly oversampling dems; something I noticed all the way back in August when he was pointing to polls from OH and VA.

Unless he moves his models to the realities that are 10/30/12, any credibility that he pick up in 2008 will be flushed down the toilet. He will be put in the same class as PPP.

RCP has Obama as the likely winner as well, you disagree, what is wrong with their models?

[mixiboi]

RCP has Obama as the likely winner as well, you disagree, what is wrong with their models?

its not a gut feeling....

[NickTheCage]

RCP has Obama as the likely winner as well, you disagree, what is wrong with their models?

Their moving average has a approx 20% of the states and (146 EV's) up for grabs but I digress

Even if RCP has 0 as the likely winner it is probably closer to the 50+% chance (tho I would like to see a link where they say he is the likely winner)... not the 70% chance the hack has 0 at

I hope i'm wrong but I wouldn't put either candidate at a 70% chance of winning, would you?

[PhillyCuse]

I lulz'd

How can anyone take a guy who says D+9 polls are "republican-friendly" or "republican-leaning"?

Guy is a fraud and only tools hold onto his blog as it is means anything serious.

And in 2010, using 2008 models, he said there was a 70% chance the GOP would gain 50 -59 seats in the house, whats ur point? You could list all the states today and I can accurately hit 90% for next Tuesday. I mean approx 80 are guaranteed to go 0 or M, and go D or R every POTUS election.

He’s a hack and doesn’t use models he doesn't like. He decides which polls to put more weight behind to comply his own average, the complete opposite to RCP which is more credible and realistic. When he does not agree with the outcome he labels a poll “repubican leaning” even when they're polls were highly oversampling dems; something I noticed all the way back in August when he was pointing to polls from OH and VA.

Unless he moves his models to the realities that are 10/30/12, any credibility that he pick up in 2008 will be flushed down the toilet. He will be put in the same class as PPP.

70% =/ 100% obv.

I don't think he really hides his own political beliefs but if his models are so biased it's odd that the 1 state he missed went to McCain? He was also pretty much the only one who said BO would win NC by a comfortable margin in the primaries.

Speaking of stuff that's outdated, "tool"? Might want to find a better burn dude.

[BarryG]

Their moving average has a approx 20% of the states and (146 EV's) up for grabs but I digress

Even if RCP has 0 as the likely winner it is probably closer to the 50+% chance (tho I would like to see a link where they say he is the likely winner)... not the 70% chance the hack has 0 at

I hope i'm wrong but I wouldn't put either candidate at a 70% chance of winning, would you?

RCP predicts Obama if you take the tossups and give them to the current leader. This is basically what Silver is doing, and why he predicts O with but ~30% uncertainty. The results are basically the same between RCP and Silver.

[NickTheCage]

AM update for kicks

IMVHO .. 5 days out and turnout may be a disaster for 0 and the Dems and I see some panic by the actions

You have WJC in West Palm and 0 heading to Broward Cty for one last grasp at trying to save Fl .. which is lost. Both counties are very Blue and why would they need to campaign a few days b4? Because they are scared of state turnout and the I-4 corridor is toast. This area (I-4) is one if not the most important area to win Florida

Old time labor areas notorious for max turnout are getting the big guns to campaign tomorrow in Wisky/Minn .. Biden to Superior, Wi tomorrow which is basically Duluth, Minnesota. Also per Duluth are (8th congressional district); Chip Cravaack polling very strong in Kerry district, and now 0 purchasing large blocks of ads in there

In Va. the 10/31 table shows more turnout trouble for 0. His top performing counties are way off their 2008 pace

[seand]

This thread is best summed up by
Circular reasoning - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia