Romney takes electoral count lead in RCP

**toxigal** · 10-26-2012, 12:51 PM

looks like Romney's electoral college lead (no including toss-ups) lasted 1 week.

**jdhill** · 10-26-2012, 01:10 PM

Originally Posted by toxigal

looks like Romney's electoral college lead (no including toss-ups) lasted 1 week.

yep, NC was moved back into toss-up due to a PPP poll which showed a tie. The next NC poll released will move it back to Romney. Any ideas on why Obama's 156 electoral vote lead is down to 24 in three weeks?

**Dolemite** · 10-26-2012, 01:29 PM

This is like a Cowboys-Jets Superbowl - can't both of these douche bags lose!

**NickTheCage** · 10-26-2012, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by jdhill

yep, NC was moved back into toss-up due to a PPP poll which showed a tie. The next NC poll released will move it back to Romney. Any ideas on why Obama's 156 electoral vote lead is down to 24 in three weeks?

As of last friday Nate Silver had 0 winning NC .. ball game

**NickTheCage** · 10-26-2012, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by Dolemite

This is like a Cowboys-Jets Superbowl - can't both of these douche bags lose!

We should be so lucky

**NickTheCage** · 10-26-2012, 01:56 PM

0 is quietly pulling field staff out of Florida and moving them the Oh

**vegenigna** · 10-30-2012, 09:17 PM

My personal favorite EV websites are:

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

and

ElectoralVote

**five apples** · 10-30-2012, 09:39 PM

Originally Posted by NickTheCage

0 is quietly pulling field staff out of Florida and moving them the Oh

Didn't escape you though Nicky did it. You got guys on the ground there. A reliable source? Or just your usual quack source?

Romney can win, but if you are going to make statements like that, back it up with something.

Also, Obama moving guys out of Florida could actually mean he thinks he is going to win Florida and since Ohio is probably going to decide the election, it is all in.

**vegenigna** · 10-31-2012, 07:03 AM

Originally Posted by five apples

Didn't escape you though Nicky did it. You got guys on the ground there. A reliable source? Or just your usual quack source?

Romney can win, but if you are going to make statements like that, back it up with something.

Also, Obama moving guys out of Florida could actually mean he thinks he is going to win Florida and since Ohio is probably going to decide the election, it is all in.

It's unlikely that Obama would have a large enough lead in FL to feel confident enough to pull out. However I agree, we need some legit sources to show he's really pulling out. With that said, Obama doesn't need to win FL to win the election.

**Bixbyte** · 10-31-2012, 11:14 AM

Originally Posted by vegenigna

It's unlikely that Obama would have a large enough lead in FL to feel confident enough to pull out. However I agree, we need some legit sources to show he's really pulling out. With that said, Obama doesn't need to win FL to win the election.

My crystal ball says .....

**AsYouWere** · 10-31-2012, 12:00 PM

This is today's electoral vote map from totally nonpartisan InTrade of Ireland. Just hover over each state for prediction details but it's showing Florida to Romney at 71% so Obama may have pulled out.
I think the storm's going to give Obama a boost with the free face time, and doling out disaster bucks which Romney won't contest at least not in public

2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012

Intrade - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

**BarryG** · 10-31-2012, 12:06 PM

538 (Nate Silver) update early this morning has Obama winning Ohio with 77% certainty, which brings his chance of winning it all up to 77% too. He has Florida going to Romney with about 60% certainty but it doesn't matter if Ohio goes blue.

RCP today also has Obama winning both with and without the tossups called. They also have Ohio going to Obama.

Momentum seems to be back in O's favor. The only recent poll I see on these poll of polls that have Romney winning Ohio is Rasmussen. All others have Obama.

Looking forward to hearing the the latest detailed analysis about why these polls are invalid.

**raider.adam** · 10-31-2012, 12:43 PM

Originally Posted by AsYouWere

This is today's electoral vote map from totally nonpartisan InTrade of Ireland. Just hover over each state for prediction details but it's showing Florida to Romney at 71% so Obama may have pulled out.
I think the storm's going to give Obama a boost with the free face time, and doling out disaster bucks which Romney won't contest at least not in public

2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012

Intrade - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It will "help" Obama, but not really for the reasons you listed. It will because he will be covered doing Presidential things. (Of course the reverse is true if he does stupid things in the situation.)

Originally Posted by BarryG

538 (Nate Silver) update early this morning has Obama winning Ohio with 77% certainty, which brings his chance of winning it all up to 77% too. He has Florida going to Romney with about 60% certainty but it doesn't matter if Ohio goes blue.

RCP today also has Obama winning both with and without the tossups called. They also have Ohio going to Obama.

Momentum seems to be back in O's favor. The only recent poll I see on these poll of polls that have Romney winning Ohio is Rasmussen. All others have Obama.

Looking forward to hearing the the latest detailed analysis about why these polls are invalid.

Yeah, I listened to Nate Silver last night and he said the momentum for Romney from the debate has just now come to an end.

**AsYouWere** · 10-31-2012, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by raider.adam

It will "help" Obama, but not really for the reasons you listed. It will because he will be covered doing Presidential things. (Of course the reverse is true if he does stupid things in the situation.)

That's pretty much what I meant doing the Pres stuff. Romney's in a tough position to hammer a guy visiting disaster areas and dispensing money to the afflicted while not costing the Obama campaign anything, which seems to even out the donations ratio.

**jdhill** · 10-31-2012, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by BarryG

538 (Nate Silver) update early this morning has Obama winning Ohio with 77% certainty, which brings his chance of winning it all up to 77% too. He has Florida going to Romney with about 60% certainty but it doesn't matter if Ohio goes blue.

RCP today also has Obama winning both with and without the tossups called. They also have Ohio going to Obama.

Momentum seems to be back in O's favor. The only recent poll I see on these poll of polls that have Romney winning Ohio is Rasmussen. All others have Obama.

Looking forward to hearing the the latest detailed analysis about why these polls are invalid.

The only momentum on the Obama side now is in his supporters near total reliance on Nate Silver as the "book-of-record" for all things prognosticatable. Well, with the possible exception of arguments about Intrade...

Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen, Battleground... all just a bunch of dimwits despite 100+ years of aggregate experience in polling.

**BarryG** · 10-31-2012, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by jdhill

The only momentum on the Obama side now is in his supporters near total reliance on Nate Silver as the "book-of-record" for all things prognosticatable. Well, with the possible exception of arguments about Intrade...

Gallup, Pew, Rasmussen, Battleground... all just a bunch of dimwits despite 100+ years of aggregate experience in polling.

Lulz. Take a look at the latest results of those polls (which silver and rcp incorporate). Yes the popular vote is very close but you have to look at the electoral.

**NickTheCage** · 10-31-2012, 01:51 PM

Originally Posted by five apples

Didn't escape you though Nicky did it. You got guys on the ground there. A reliable source? Or just your usual quack source?

Romney can win, but if you are going to make statements like that, back it up with something.

Also, Obama moving guys out of Florida could actually mean he thinks he is going to win Florida and since Ohio is probably going to decide the election, it is all in.

Yep, he pulled field assets because he's going to win, the indy, LV, and enthusiasm polling show that. Guess that's the reason why some major polling orgs pulled out of Fl as well.

**jdhill** · 10-31-2012, 01:54 PM

Originally Posted by BarryG

Lulz. Take a look at the latest results of those polls (which silver and rcp incorporate). Yes the popular vote is very close but you have to look at the electoral.

Yep I did. Those 4 "average" Romney +1.5, while Silver has Obama +1.9 in popular vote. I don't have a problem with Silver's prediction, nor do I care about his methodology. I'm amused by the reality that this guy's NYT blog has become the last refuge for those seeking to minimize Romney's surge.

I thought debates 2, 3 and 4 were what supposedly would do Romney in... after all Obama and Biden won all three right? Here's the RCP #'s on the day of each debate, and again today:

10/11: Romney +0.7
10/16: Romney +0.4
10/22: Romney +0.4
10/31: Romney +0.8

Plus, during that same time period RCP moved 1 state to Obama but 2 states to Romney. And this is momentum for Obama???? Sure it is.

**BarryG** · 10-31-2012, 01:56 PM

Originally Posted by jdhill

Yep I did. Those 4 "average" Romney +1.5, while Silver has Obama +1.9 in popular vote. I don't have a problem with Silver's prediction, nor do I care about his methodology. I'm amused by the reality that this guy's NYT blog has become the last refuge for those seeking to minimize Romney's surge.

I thought debates 2, 3 and 4 were what supposedly would do Romney in... after all Obama and Biden won all three right? Here's the RCP #'s on the day of each debate, and again today:

10/11: Romney +0.7
10/16: Romney +0.4
10/22: Romney +0.4
10/31: Romney +0.8

Plus, during that same time period RCP moved 1 state to Obama but 2 states to Romney. And this is momentum for Obama???? Sure it is.

You guys bashed all the polls you mentioned when they favored Obama. How they have 100+ years of credibility. "Is this real life?"

The popular vote is meaningless. It's about states flipping and VA and CO are now looking much better for Obama. Look at RCP closely today and get back to me.

**NickTheCage** · 10-31-2012, 02:06 PM

Originally Posted by BarryG

538 (Nate Silver) update early this morning has Obama winning Ohio with 77% certainty, which brings his chance of winning it all up to 77% too. He has Florida going to Romney with about 60% certainty but it doesn't matter if Ohio goes blue.

RCP today also has Obama winning both with and without the tossups called. They also have Ohio going to Obama.

Momentum seems to be back in O's favor. The only recent poll I see on these poll of polls that have Romney winning Ohio is Rasmussen. All others have Obama.

Looking forward to hearing the the latest detailed analysis about why these polls are invalid.

I lulz’d at the polling data today

D+9 in Ohio
D+7 in Virginia
FYI .. Roanoke Coll has a poll out with a D+4 showing Mittens +5

The Ohio elections department demonstrate that voter registration is actually down from 2008 in Cuyahoga County. That same county is showing early voter #’s tapering off and are now behind the numbers of 2008.

If this is all true please explain to me how 0 is going to get a larger D turnout?

I haven’t even included the polling that shows a double digit gop enthusiasm gap.

I think he is toast but I can easily be wrong. I could also see 2000 reversed w/ Mittens taking the popular and 0 taking the EV.

All I am saying is Silver and his followers hang his claim to fame on 08. Anyone with a pulse could have pretty much figured that out when McShame came of the campaign and 0 said as POTUS you have to be able to juggle more than one thing at a time. The most respected long time pollsters, Gallup, Rass, Mason Dixon, are now showing a very different race than these new, ‘fly by night’ polling outfits from liberal arts colleges. Most of them basically showed up on the scene 4 years ago but their #’s should have more importance? Sorry boss, not buying it.