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  1. #1
    Sharkfood is offline Senior Member
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    Default Homicides down 31% so far this year

    The statistics are through February 7th.

    Crime Statistics | Philadelphia Police Department

    We're having our best start in the last 6 years.
    (Probably in the last 10 years.) We're even ahead
    of 2009, the most recent low ebb.

  2. #2
    BarryG is offline Senior Member
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    And also just about on par with 2008, which ended up worse than last year.

    It's been a cold January. Let's not pop the bubbly yet.

  3. #3
    JakeL is online now Senior Member
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    I've been following the homicide rate on a regular basis, and begun saving the data each day about two weeks ago. I wish I had more data to analyze, but I think this lower rate is a continuation of what we were seeing towards the end of last year, giving me hope that this is trend will continue. I've saved each days tally and then extrapolated the homicide rate per 100,000 for the year in the graph below. Looking forward to providing more data in the coming weeks and months. Is there an easy way to get the previous tallies, rather than waiting for each day?


  4. #4
    MariusPontmercy's Avatar
    MariusPontmercy is offline poor grad student
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    Guys, shut up before you jinx it.

    Seriously.
    "imagination and memory are but one thing, which for diverse considerations hath diverse names" - Thomas Hobbes

  5. #5
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    mixiboi is offline Philly Remixed
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    This is what makes trying to find a solution to this problem is so hard. There is no rhyme or reason on why it goes up or down...unlike say Chicago.


    And no it was not a cold January. It is only 3 degrees colder then last year when we had more homicides then the number of days....


    Data can only go so far if you can't figure out what is really driving the data trends.
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  6. #6
    ShoshTrvls's Avatar
    ShoshTrvls is online now Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by BarryG View Post
    .

    It's been a cold January..
    Where have you been living?

    We had one cold week. We had quite a few days in the 50's and 60's, including a day that was almost 70. In January.

  7. #7
    JakeL is online now Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by MariusPontmercy View Post
    Guys, shut up before you jinx it.

    Seriously.
    Gangbanger drug dealer in Hunting Park: "Dear colleagues, I have been reviewing the forums of Philadelphiaspeaks and have found our homicide rate to be lacking. JakeL was writing about the low homicide statistics and believes that there are going to be less murders in the future. Given our gangbanger status, we must avenge this rhetoric and double, neh, triple! the homicide rate."

    If talking about homicide rates caused homicides, New York would have 10,000 homicides this year.

  8. #8
    eldondre is online now Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by mixiboi View Post
    This is what makes trying to find a solution to this problem is so hard. There is no rhyme or reason on why it goes up or down...unlike say Chicago.


    And no it was not a cold January. It is only 3 degrees colder then last year when we had more homicides then the number of days....


    Data can only go so far if you can't figure out what is really driving the data trends.
    I suspect the ebb and flow of the drug war does affect homicide rates. Philadelphia is, among other things, home to the east coast's largest heroine market. it seems likely that turf wars flare up now and again there would be brief periods of relative peace. not to say that explains all of it but I'm sure it explains some.
    "It has shown me that everything is illuminated in the light of the past"
    Jonathan Safran Foer

  9. #9
    eldondre is online now Moderator
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    "It has shown me that everything is illuminated in the light of the past"
    Jonathan Safran Foer

  10. #10
    3rd&Brown is offline Senior Member
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    It feels long overdue. With all of the gentrification happening and literally, repopulation of basically forgotten areas, it just makes sense that the rate would go down. In lots of neighborhoods all over this city, there are literally tens of thousands of more eyes and ears on the street. My guess is that some of this has to do with that repopulation, and that crime and activity which previously happened in the light of day has either gone indoors or moved or both.

    That being said, there is so much more the police department can do and easily so, it's not even funny. I now live in Crown Heights in Brooklyn. Our main drag, Franklin Avenue, is not unlike Girard Avenue West of Broad, but with a bit more momentum. There isn't a single night on my walk home from the subway where I do not see one, if not a gaggle of beat cops. On the subway. In the subway station. On commercial corridors. He'll, the other night I was at the laundromat and two cops ducked inside to get warm for a few minutes while keeping an eye on the street. It feels great having them around and even better seeing them. They make Philly cops look like lazy, entitled slobs in comparison.

  11. #11
    Hospitalitygirl's Avatar
    Hospitalitygirl is offline Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
    It feels long overdue. With all of the gentrification happening and literally, repopulation of basically forgotten areas, it just makes sense that the rate would go down. In lots of neighborhoods all over this city, there are literally tens of thousands of more eyes and ears on the street. My guess is that some of this has to do with that repopulation, and that crime and activity which previously happened in the light of day has either gone indoors or moved or both.

    That being said, there is so much more the police department can do and easily so, it's not even funny. I now live in Crown Heights in Brooklyn. Our main drag, Franklin Avenue, is not unlike Girard Avenue West of Broad, but with a bit more momentum. There isn't a single night on my walk home from the subway where I do not see one, if not a gaggle of beat cops. On the subway. In the subway station. On commercial corridors. He'll, the other night I was at the laundromat and two cops ducked inside to get warm for a few minutes while keeping an eye on the street. It feels great having them around and even better seeing them. They make Philly cops look like lazy, entitled slobs in comparison.
    You need an awful lot of personnel in order to have a "gaggle of beat cops" walking beats. We don't have the numbers to do that.
    I am not the Jackass Whisperer.

  12. #12
    rojnish is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by JakeL View Post
    Gangbanger drug dealer in Hunting Park: "Dear colleagues, I have been reviewing the forums of Philadelphiaspeaks and have found our homicide rate to be lacking. JakeL was writing about the low homicide statistics and believes that there are going to be less murders in the future. Given our gangbanger status, we must avenge this rhetoric and double, neh, triple! the homicide rate."
    Dear Jake,
    I respectfully submit that you meant to say "fewer" in place of "less." Fewer is used to indicate something discretely quantifiable, like the number of murders, while less is used to describe something non-countable, like a liquid or powder. Fewer murders, less crack. One is discrete, and the other not. Although my examples both tend not to be discreet.

  13. #13
    JakeL is online now Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hospitalitygirl View Post
    You need an awful lot of personnel in order to have a "gaggle of beat cops" walking beats. We don't have the numbers to do that.
    According to this data (http://www.governing.com/gov-data/sa...or-cities.html), we actually have more officers per 10,000 residents than NYC. Maybe the lack of foot patrols has something to do with the less dense nature of our city?

  14. #14
    eldondre is online now Moderator
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    Quote Originally Posted by JakeL View Post
    According to this data (Law Enforcement Officers Per Capita for Cities, Local Departments), we actually have more officers per 10,000 residents than NYC. Maybe the lack of foot patrols has something to do with the less dense nature of our city?
    no ramsey loves foot patrols and introduced them when he got here. i understand we have more cops that work the desk than most. where other cities have administrators we have high paid cops. ive also heard complaints about work rules here giving less flexibility. devil is in the details.
    "It has shown me that everything is illuminated in the light of the past"
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  15. #15
    MariusPontmercy's Avatar
    MariusPontmercy is offline poor grad student
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    Quote Originally Posted by eldondre View Post
    no ramsey loves foot patrols and introduced them when he got here. i understand we have more cops that work the desk than most. where other cities have administrators we have high paid cops. ive also heard complaints about work rules here giving less flexibility. devil is in the details.
    Saw beat cops out on South St last night. We have them, they're just not all over the city.
    "imagination and memory are but one thing, which for diverse considerations hath diverse names" - Thomas Hobbes

  16. #16
    RittenhouseGirl is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
    I now live in Crown Heights in Brooklyn. Our main drag, Franklin Avenue, is not unlike Girard Avenue West of Broad, but with a bit more momentum. There isn't a single night on my walk home from the subway where I do not see one, if not a gaggle of beat cops.
    3rd&B,

    Could you advise me on something?

    Would you be able to tell me what this area of Brooklyn is like -- 3000 Fort Hamilton Parkway?

    I have a friend who wants me to visit her, and she lives around there. If it is shady, I will probably just meet her in Manhattan. Plus taking a train or bus there, not sure what I would run into.

    I have a friend from Harlem who tells me Brooklyn is shady, but she hasn't lived in NYC for at least ten years. Maybe Brooklyn has greatly changed.

    Thanks!

  17. #17
    NickTheCage is offline Banned
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    Quote Originally Posted by mixiboi View Post
    This is what makes trying to find a solution to this problem is so hard.
    It is actually very simple; end the war on drugs. Won't cure homicide 100% but will drop homicide, and violent crime in general, drastically.

  18. #18
    NickTheCage is offline Banned
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    Quote Originally Posted by RittenhouseGirl View Post
    3rd&B,

    Could you advise me on something?

    Would you be able to tell me what this area of Brooklyn is like -- 3000 Fort Hamilton Parkway?

    I have a friend who wants me to visit her, and she lives around there. If it is shady, I will probably just meet her in Manhattan. Plus taking a train or bus there, not sure what I would run into.

    I have a friend from Harlem who tells me Brooklyn is shady, but she hasn't lived in NYC for at least ten years. Maybe Brooklyn has greatly changed.

    Thanks!
    If it's the northern part of FH Pkwy not shaddy @ all as it would put u near prospect park and not far from Prospect Park, Park Slope, etc .. ur friend is giving u false info as much of Brklyn isn't shady @ all. You'll be fine in that entire area if not most of bklyn

  19. #19
    RittenhouseGirl is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickTheCage View Post
    If it's the northern part of FH Pkwy not shaddy @ all as it would put u near prospect park and not far from Prospect Park, Park Slope, etc .. ur friend is giving u false info as much of Brklyn isn't shady @ all. You'll be fine in that entire area if not most of bklyn
    Thanks for the info. I didn't think it could ALL be bad.

  20. #20
    Sharkfood is offline Senior Member
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    February 10th and we're now down 37% from last year.

    22 vs. 39 at this time last year.

 

 

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