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  1. #301
    billy ross is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickleDimer View Post
    This could be the reason. Cops respond to gunfire, kill the murderer, who in turn will not kill any more and not be killed in retaliation. We're just reaching the end of that killing cycle. Broke a few eggs and are enjoying our omelet. Or maybe the murdering classes just moved.
    To prison.

    Tit for tat murders really add up, except when the perps go to jail. I'm pretty sure the percentage of closed cases has skyrocketed. That really puts a hole in your murder rate.

    Or those likely to murder in the 22nd District have left the 22nd District. Makes sense to me. The murder rate in the 22nd fell off a cliff. That area is also gentrifying, amazingly rapidly in places. Coincidence? I don't think so.

    So we have two forces at work. Better, more proactive policing, and population shifts. Since both seem to be ongoing, I don't expect the recemt decline in murders to be an aberration.
    Last edited by billy ross; 08-27-2013 at 01:12 PM.

  2. #302
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickleDimer View Post
    Is more cops on the beat really a deterrent to murder? Certainly it is for petty crimes and general street misbehavior, but murder? Murders generally aren't random on-a-whim acts where you stroll around looking for a victim until you bump into a cop and suddenly your eternal life-ending hatred for another person subsides when he hands you a lollipop and talks about the weather.
    Temple did a study on it in a pilot program with the PPD in 2010. Philadelphia took the results and ran with them, bravo to that. The Temple study found that violent crime decreased by 23% in areas in which the foot patrols were focused. One could argue that the crime just moved to areas outside the foot patrols, but that takes the criminals out of their comfort zones and into areas they would be less familiar with, or spread them out into a larger area which means it would be less concentrated and easier for police to enforce because they'd have more manpower per incident I'd imagine. As far as I know the foot patrols rotate, and they change the beats every few months to areas of greater need, but perhaps a poster like O.H. Lee could shed more light on that aspect.

  3. #303
    thoth's Avatar
    thoth is offline I LOOK LIKE THIS
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    Whoa: "Half the people shot in Philadelphia are shot within two blocks of their address,” [says Jerry Ratcliffe, director of Temple’s Centre for Security and Crime Science]

  4. #304
    MNG1324 is online now Senior Member
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    That's means I could get shot at City Hall....but they prefer to phuck you with higher real estate taxes which slowly kills you instead.

  5. #305
    billy ross is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by thoth View Post
    Whoa: "Half the people shot in Philadelphia are shot within two blocks of their address,” [says Jerry Ratcliffe, director of Temple’s Centre for Security and Crime Science]
    Are they including suicides and murder-suicides? I would guess most domestics happen at or close to home.

  6. #306
    NickleDimer is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by billy ross View Post
    I'm pretty sure the percentage of closed cases has skyrocketed.
    Where did you get that from? There are a buttload of unsolved murders due to the stop snitchin attitude.

  7. #307
    NickleDimer is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by AbortedWalrus View Post
    Temple did a study on it in a pilot program with the PPD in 2010. Philadelphia took the results and ran with them, bravo to that. The Temple study found that violent crime decreased by 23% in areas in which the foot patrols were focused.
    Violent crimes - mostly muggings would decrease. Doubtful that it has an impact on murder. Not that it isn't progress though. Of course, how many cops are going to want to walk the streets when they hear about the underfunded pension liabilities??

  8. #308
    Insoluble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickleDimer View Post
    Where did you get that from? There are a buttload of unsolved murders due to the stop snitchin attitude.
    Closure rate for murder is actually pretty good. This is something the PPD and courts have been pushing hard on. For most other crimes it's not so good.

    Quote Originally Posted by NickleDimer View Post
    Violent crimes - mostly muggings would decrease. Doubtful that it has an impact on murder. Not that it isn't progress though. Of course, how many cops are going to want to walk the streets when they hear about the underfunded pension liabilities??
    It's always glass half full with you isn't it.

  9. #309
    Hospitalitygirl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Insoluble View Post
    Closure rate for murder is actually pretty good. This is something the PPD and courts have been pushing hard on. For most other crimes it's not so good.
    The clearance rate was actually quite good at one point in the 70s-80s, but then the wheels came off. I'm glad to see it's finally getting better.


    Quote Originally Posted by Insoluble View Post
    always glass half full with you isn't it.
    As much as he seems to loathe BRoss, he's actually worshipping at the altar and learning lessons all too well and trolling for nothing more than being an arbitrary and capricious prick.
    I am not the Jackass Whisperer.

  10. #310
    billy ross is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickleDimer View Post
    Violent crimes - mostly muggings would decrease. Doubtful that it has an impact on murder. Not that it isn't progress though. Of course, how many cops are going to want to walk the streets when they hear about the underfunded pension liabilities??
    It must be awful living with your tiny worldview.

    As far as I know, the Philadelphia Police is having zero problems filling their ranks with qualified people. If that isn't the case, I'm sure someone will set the record straight. It seems to me that the quality of the PPD has been going up nicely with the new recruits, and the biggest problem they have is ferreting out the people who are part of the bad old ways of doing things.

  11. #311
    NickleDimer is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by billy ross View Post
    It must be awful living with your tiny worldview.

    As far as I know, the Philadelphia Police is having zero problems filling their ranks with qualified people. If that isn't the case, I'm sure someone will set the record straight. It seems to me that the quality of the PPD has been going up nicely with the new recruits, and the biggest problem they have is ferreting out the people who are part of the bad old ways of doing things.
    What's the awful part of my worldview, pal?

    There isn't any problem filling the ranks because there's an abundance of military veterans and unemployed college grads. There seems to be a steady stream of PPD's young crop who are part of the "bad old ways":

    23 and 27 years old:
    Police Accused of Corruption | NBC 10 Philadelphia

    30:
    Philadelphia Police Officer Charles Jacoby Arrested For Wire Fraud « CBS Philly

    24 to 31:
    Former Philadelphia Cops Sean Alivera and Christopher Luciano Sentenced For Setting Up Robbery Of Drug Dealer « CBS Philly

    27:
    Ex-hero cop DeCoatsworth a 'junkie,' his lawyer says - Philly.com

  12. #312
    Insoluble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hospitalitygirl View Post
    As much as he seems to loathe BRoss, he's actually worshipping at the altar and learning lessons all too well and trolling for nothing more than being an arbitrary and capricious prick.
    I find it hilarious how both of their posts following yours pretty much prove your point to a T.

  13. #313
    NickleDimer is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hospitalitygirl View Post
    As much as he seems to loathe BRoss, he's actually worshipping at the altar and learning lessons all too well and trolling for nothing more than being an arbitrary and capricious prick.
    I don't loathe ross! He's my amigo. We love discussing the finer points of living choices and government policy together. I didn't read your post initially because yours are generally void of meaningful content. I do take offense to being called arbitrary and capricious though. Let me know if you would like to have a manners-off sometime. I'll out-polite you anyday.

  14. #314
    NickleDimer is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Insoluble View Post
    Closure rate for murder is actually pretty good.
    There are over 1100 open murder cases just from murders that occurred during 2002-2011.

  15. #315
    vampyre927 is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by billy ross View Post
    It must be awful living with your tiny worldview.

    As far as I know, the Philadelphia Police is having zero problems filling their ranks with qualified people. If that isn't the case, I'm sure someone will set the record straight. It seems to me that the quality of the PPD has been going up nicely with the new recruits, and the biggest problem they have is ferreting out the people who are part of the bad old ways of doing things.
    I'm sorry,have you seen the female police officers in the 5th district! They had to lower the height,weight requirements to get Black female police officers. My cousin, who is a police captain,told me that and they have to go to districts(like the 5th)because they can barely run due to their weight. They can barely write a ticket without calling their fellow officers.

  16. #316
    Litter Box's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vampyre927 View Post
    I'm sorry,have you seen the female police officers in the 5th district! They had to lower the height,weight requirements to get Black female police officers. My cousin, who is a police captain,told me that and they have to go to districts(like the 5th)because they can barely run due to their weight. They can barely write a ticket without calling their fellow officers.
    This week on GMA the PPD had officers in the crowd with recruiting posters. That may because of the problem you spelled out.
    But all in all, it's been a fabulous year for Laura and me.
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  17. #317
    Sharkfood is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by vampyre927 View Post
    I'm sorry,have you seen the female police officers in the 5th district! They had to lower the height,weight requirements to get Black female police officers. My cousin, who is a police captain,told me that and they have to go to districts(like the 5th)because they can barely run due to their weight. They can barely write a ticket without calling their fellow officers.
    you mean they had to raise the weight requirements

  18. #318
    billy ross is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickleDimer View Post
    There are over 1100 open murder cases just from murders that occurred during 2002-2011.
    You love to quote snapshots. You need to look at how things change over time if you're going to have a clue as to where we're going.

    What matters is the percentage of closed murder cases in any given period, and how that number changes over time. If you get it up, you've got fewer bad guys on the streets and more cops going after said bad guys, ceteris paribus. It can be a virtuous or a vicious cycle, like keeping schools enrolled at capacity, for instance. It's better to stay on the virtuous side of the cycle.

  19. #319
    NickleDimer is offline Senior Member
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    Where do you think those 1100 unpunished murderers went (other than Lower Merion and Plymouth Township)?

  20. #320
    billy ross is offline Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickleDimer View Post
    Where do you think those 1100 unpunished murderers went (other than Lower Merion and Plymouth Township)?
    Many were themselves murdered. Others are in jail. Some are still murdering. Others stopped murdering. This has been going on for generations. You act like it's a new thing. The question is, are murderers today more likely to end up behind bars? I think the answer is yes.

 

 

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