So much for Voter ID: Obama with 9 point lead

[ArcticSplash]

New poll shows Obama with a significant lead over Romney in Pennsylvania

Will be more interesting to see how the composition of the General Assembly changes, though.

[Litter Box]

That seems high, the lead has been hanging in the 3 - 4% range. Huge jump.

[nickster]

This Voter I.D. nonsense is all going to backfire for Corbett and the Republicans. Democratic turnout in PA in November could easily be a record setter.

[Naveen]

This is exactly why the PA GOP passed the law. It doesn't matter if Obama leads Romney by 9...if Obama voters can't vote. Romney still wins.

[thoth]

I think nickster was saying that the laws energized the Democrat machine and democrat voters, leading to more voter drives. Making people feel like someone is out there trying to stop them from voting may actually increase the amount of people who become determined to vote.

I have absolutely no evidence to show this is the case, but it's possible.

This is exactly why the PA GOP passed the law. It doesn't matter if Obama leads Romney by 9...if Obama voters can't vote. Romney still wins.

[Litter Box]

I think nickster was saying that the laws energized the Democrat machine and democrat voters, leading to more voter drives. Making people feel like someone is out there trying to stop them from voting may actually increase the amount of people who become determined to vote.

I have absolutely no evidence to show this is the case, but it's possible.

You might call it the FBI / Street effect.

[Litter Box]

On Ch 10 news at 11 it was reported that Obama's lead in the 5 county area is an unbelievable 25%.

[mixiboi]

On Ch 10 news at 11 it was reported that Obama's lead in the 5 county area is an unbelievable 25%.

Yeah, the end of the summer is near so no more need to boost their ratings anymore with "The election is close!!!!"....

Remember Reagan in 84? Yeah.....


With the conventions and the run into the election, the media has their other stories in place to keep their ratings high.

[five apples]

Remember Reagan in 88? Yeah....

Clearly showing signs of early dementia and about to leave office after two terms?

[mixiboi]

Oops I meant 84..I blocked out George HW Bush term in Office....Like most....

[Litter Box]

Oops I meant 84..I blocked out George HW Bush term in Office....Like most....

Where did I say we could kick back and relax ?

[Naveen]

This is exactly why the PA GOP passed the law. It doesn't matter if Obama leads Romney by 9...if Obama voters can't vote. Romney still wins.

I think nickster was saying that the laws energized the Democrat machine and democrat voters, leading to more voter drives. Making people feel like someone is out there trying to stop them from voting may actually increase the amount of people who become determined to vote.

I have absolutely no evidence to show this is the case, but it's possible.

Sorry, I wasn't addressing nickster's comment, but the OP's.

I think nickster has a point and I hadn't considered that, though.

[five apples]

I find this poll hard to believe. I will go with more experienced sources than the inqy on this. Having said that, our governor is very unpopular apparently and that is hurting Romney, at least that is what the talking heads are saying.

[thoth]

I find this poll hard to believe. I will go with more experienced sources than the inqy on this. Having said that, our governor is very unpopular apparently and that is hurting Romney, at least that is what the talking heads are saying.

I view Romney kind of as a Republican version of John Kerry. He doesn't have major weaknesses a la a Walter Mondale type candidate, but he's been pretty strongly tied to the one of the worst aspects of the Republican party (Wall Street, cronyism, tax dodging et al) and is not otherwise "fresh" or exciting as a more libertarian candidate might have been. In short, he has zero chance of catching votes from left leaning centrists who might otherwise be persuaded to vote for a republican with less ties to Wall Street, nor is he going to galvanize the republican base. He's kind of a generic "anti-Obama" candidate, but I don't see him doing much to reach out to voters beyond those who would never have been persuaded to vote for Obama anyway. Like Kerry, who was an uninteresting, generic Democrat whose greatest strength was not being George Bush.

I think it'll still be close because of the condition of the economy and Obama being who he is (both in racial terms and also his policies, which I know are unpopular with many leftists), but I just don't see Romney pulling it out. Dude couldn't even be left alone in Europe for a few weeks.

[supersupper]

Like Kerry, who was an uninteresting, generic Democrat whose greatest strength was not being George Bush.

This time it's not a matter of charisma- they each have enough.


Kerry was a war veteran lined up against a non-veteran in a time of war.
Romney is a business man / investor lined up against a lawyer in a time of financial peril and angst.

The average lower-income swing voter generally distrust experts- republican voter distrust "elites", the democrat voter distrust "1% ers".
The average higher-income swing voter generally votes according to self-interest, which generally means money.

Romney would have you believe he is the expert who can fix the mess.
Obama would have you believe he is the common man who can fix the mess if given enough time.
Both are Elites and 1%ers (almost).


The general consensus is the current financial mess was precipitated by those in the financial business who mostly retained their money.

One can argue that Obama hasn't returned the economy to normal, but no one can argue he was a participant in the economic collapse in the first place.

[NickTheCage]

I find this poll hard to believe. I will go with more experienced sources than the inqy on this. Having said that, our governor is very unpopular apparently and that is hurting Romney, at least that is what the talking heads are saying.

Agree with Apples

I asked a few friends in the industry .. weird poll

17% of Repubics polled are voting for The Bamster????
Up by 9% with a 7% margin for error ????
12th District of Pa is basically tied (D incumbent) so they are going to vote Bamster but may send a Repubic to congress

This entire poll is hot garbage and like most polls, I wouldn’t read to much into it
The ones that count are internal polls and all one has to see is where the candidates are spending ca$h to know if they are worried or not

[raider.adam]

Will be more interesting to see how the composition of the General Assembly changes, though.

I am expecting the GOP to still control the GA.

The bigger race to watch is the Casey - Smith race. If Casey stomps Smith with more than 10 points, it may embolden Casey to challenge Corbett on re-election.