Things Are About to Get Very Interesting in Lebanon & the ME

[Jackstraw01]

Lebanon's unity government collapses as Hezbollah, allies quit - CNN.com

Beirut, Lebanon (CNN) -- Members of the powerful Hezbollah movement and its allies brought down Lebanon's unity government Wednesday after resigning from Prime Minister Saad Hariri's Cabinet.

Minister of State Adnan Sayyed Hussein turned in his resignation along with 10 members of the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance, meaning that the threshold needed -- 11 resignations from the 30-member Cabinet -- to collapse the government had been reached.

Lebanon's government has been at an impasse over the U.N.-backed special tribunal's investigation of the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the current premier's father. It is widely expected the tribunal will indict members of Shiite Muslim Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department.

Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the 2005 bombing that killed Hariri and has pressured the government to reject the tribunal's probe.

[ArcticSplash]

Israel will probably just reoccupy 12 miles inside the Lebanese border to block Hezbollah from crossing over like they did for decades.

The first moment a Hezbollah-led government tries anything at Israel, I'm sure re-occupation will be swift.

[five apples]

Israel will probably just reoccupy 12 miles inside the Lebanese border to block Hezbollah from crossing over like they did for decades.

The first moment a Hezbollah-led government tries anything at Israel, I'm sure re-occupation will be swift.

There will be no Hezbollah led goverenment in Lebanon, however there might be another civil war, which would be sad considering how far they have come in the last decade.

[Jackstraw01]

This has been brewing for a few years. The Hezbo’s are dumb enough to attempt some offensive, & any they make will probably to piss off Israel enough to attack them. Not sure if they occupy as they have enough problems w/ the Pally’s + bad memories and experiences w/ South Leb where the Hezbos are engrained (as well as Beka). Do you think Israel has the stomach to ‘manage’ another group of lunatic goat herders?

Their (Hezbos) best bet is to go right at the Lebanese military as the army can’t do anything right and when the sugar hits the fan they break up into religious sects. It will end up as another civil war which is a shame. Lebanon is a great country filled with gorgeous scantily-clad women, beautiful beaches, great towns, lenient laws about everything, & fun bars with cheap drink. That country just can’t catch a break and if they could just get some peace I really think it would prosper.

[gren]

Lebanon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Parliament of Lebanon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I think those two compared to each other more or less describe the political past and future of Lebanon.

[DrDoom]

Not really ...Besides, I don't think Israel is too keen on getting another bloody nose if they happen to embroil themselves in there again....the internal Winograd report totally humiliated them...

Both Lebanese and foreign political leaders sought to calm the mood in Beirut on Thursday, a day after the collapse of Saad Hariri's government following the resignation of Hezbollah ministers and their allies.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah announced that "there will never be a war between Sunnis and Shias in Lebanon." Security sources told Haaretz that although Israel continues to monitor the situation, the developments are seen at this point as internal and not an immediate risk of producing a border conflict with the Israel Defense Forces.

...Contrary to reports in the international media on Thursday, the IDF did not significantly increase its alert level on the northern border, and did not concentrate forces there. Intelligence officials during the weekly briefing with Defense Minister Ehud Barak said they did not believe the events in Beirut would have immediate implications for the situation on the border.

MESS Report-Israel News - Haaretz Israeli News source.

[Braveheart]

Much to Israel's credit they did not overreact to the recent shelling from Gaza, and Hamas has deployed along the

border to contain any further attacks by extremist radicals.