Murder

**ScottBudman** · 11-25-2012, 11:28 PM

While Philadelphia is about to go over 300 murders New York City might actually end up with under 400 murders this year and will most likely set a new record low. Maybe it's time the Philly PD looks into what NYC is doing right.

**Malloy** · 11-25-2012, 11:34 PM

Don't forget DC's success.

**ScottBudman** · 11-25-2012, 11:37 PM

Originally Posted by Malloy

Don't forget DC's success.

True.

I'm sure some putz will say "at least we're not Chicago"

**BarryG** · 11-26-2012, 06:28 AM

Well the "good news" is that we are no longer on pace to have more murders than last year: http://www.phillypolice.com/about/crime-statistics/

Given where we were six months ago this actually does represent meaningful improvement in the numbers.

As for DC... Yes it would be nice to gentrify our poor people outside of city limits but that is a lot harder in a city this size. If philly were the same geographic size as DC we would have already achieved that miracle.

**lucidinnature** · 11-26-2012, 07:54 AM

If Nutter would have not seeked re-election as promised since he failed this city, maybe we'd be towards a better solution.

**ScottBudman** · 11-26-2012, 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by BarryG

Well the "good news" is that we are no longer on pace to have more murders than last year: Crime Statistics | Philadelphia Police Department

Given where we were six months ago this actually does represent meaningful improvement in the numbers.

.

Might want to look again.
Crime Statistics | Philadelphia Police Department

**BarryG** · 11-26-2012, 09:13 AM

Originally Posted by ScottBudman

Might want to look again.
Crime Statistics | Philadelphia Police Department

Two murders yesterday, nice.

**Naveen** · 11-26-2012, 09:18 AM

Does anyone have an assessment of what is driving the spike in murders? Is it increased drug trade and the resulting turf wars, associated crime, etc. that may be linked to the down economy? Is it PPD practices (reduction of "stop and frisk", or other things)?

Also, I'd be interested in seeing which neighborhoods have had the greatest jump. IIRC the last time I checked it was the Southwest.

**BarryG** · 11-26-2012, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by Naveen

Does anyone have an assessment of what is driving the spike in murders? Is it increased drug trade and the resulting turf wars, associated crime, etc. that may be linked to the down economy? Is it PPD practices (reduction of "stop and frisk", or other things)?

Also, I'd be interested in seeing which neighborhoods have had the greatest jump. IIRC the last time I checked it was the Southwest.

Even more so--I wish PPD had easy to read year-on-year stats for other crimes. Murders may be high but the average citizen is still not at risk. Muggings and property crimes reflect quality of life in the city much more.

**Naveen** · 11-26-2012, 09:38 AM

Originally Posted by BarryG

Even more so--I wish PPD had easy to read year-on-year stats for other crimes. Murders may be high but the average citizen is still not at risk. Muggings and property crimes reflect quality of life in the city much more.

Yep. I'm much more worried about breaking and entering and muggings/assaults than I am murders from a personal perspective.

**NickleDimer** · 11-26-2012, 10:34 AM

Don't Shoot: One Man, A Street Fellowship, and the End of Violence in Inner-City America: David M. Kennedy: 9781608194148: Amazon.com: Books

**billy ross** · 11-26-2012, 10:46 AM

Originally Posted by Malloy

Don't forget DC's success.

NYC and DC teach us that when you transplant out the murdering population from your city, your murder rate plummets. Duh. Track the murder rate in Point Breeze as time goes on, and you'll see what I'm talking about. When you relocate them within your city, the murders just move to another part of your city. This is what's going on in Philly.

**mixiboi** · 11-26-2012, 10:53 AM

I mean if we treat everyone(Well everyone) like criminals then yeah, you too can lower your crime rate...We tried that, but that didn't go so well...Nor for that matter in NY as the transplants aren't so happy about such policies....

Well except in the end it doesn't stop this:

5-year-old girl shot by stray bullet - NYPOST.com

or get front page coverage across the country....No one cares if this happens in camden or St Louis(The highest murder rates in the country)...

But this will continue the stop and frist policy in NYC for a bit longer...

**Naveen** · 11-26-2012, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by billy ross

NYC and DC teach us that when you transplant out the murdering population from your city, your murder rate plummets. Duh. Track the murder rate in Point Breeze as time goes on, and you'll see what I'm talking about. When you relocate them within your city, the murders just move to another part of your city. This is what's going on in Philly.

DC. I'd be interested in seeing the crime stats over the past 10 years in Prince George's county. Can't be pretty.

NYC. Where is the "murdering population" being driven to? Long Island? Jersey? I think here it may have more to do with a better functioning economy, and that even at the lower end of the scale, there are more jobs to be had than in Philly.

**OffenseTaken** · 11-26-2012, 11:20 AM

Originally Posted by BarryG

As for DC... Yes it would be nice to gentrify our poor people outside of city limits but that is a lot harder in a city this size. If philly were the same geographic size as DC we would have already achieved that miracle.

Originally Posted by Naveen

NYC. Where is the "murdering population" being driven to? Long Island? Jersey? I think here it may have more to do with a better functioning economy, and that even at the lower end of the scale, there are more jobs to be had than in Philly.

That's just it: there are vast, crappy, outlying areas of New York, too. A lot of the people getting priced out of Brooklyn and Queens are moving to the eastern Bronx or the north shore of Staten Island.

Sure, it helps when the right demographics are leaving, but let's not kid ourselves: better policing is a big factor in this.

_

**rjj** · 11-26-2012, 12:00 PM

Originally Posted by Naveen

DC. I'd be interested in seeing the crime stats over the past 10 years in Prince George's county. Can't be pretty.

NYC. Where is the "murdering population" being driven to? Long Island? Jersey? I think here it may have more to do with a better functioning economy, and that even at the lower end of the scale, there are more jobs to be had than in Philly.

do some research on Giuliani while he was the AG and mayor in NY. He and Bill Bratton changed the city via CompStat and the "broken windows" strategy.
if you have the time, read Frank Zimring's "Great American Crime Decline".

the big question surrounding the changes: was it great police work or civil rights abuse?

If Giuliani’s policies toward the poor were particularly uncaring and cynical, well, how many leaders have ever done more for the unfortunate than their constituents demanded? If many people of color saw their rights violated by the police, no doubt many were happy to live in a safer city, or as Giuliani put it with typical delicacy when asked by a Washington Post reporter what he had done for minorities, “They’re alive. How about we start with that?”
Source: America‘s Mayor, America‘s President?, by R. Polner, p.170 , May 2, 2007

**ArcticSplash** · 11-26-2012, 12:56 PM

Originally Posted by billy ross

NYC and DC teach us that when you transplant out the murdering population from your city, your murder rate plummets. Duh. Track the murder rate in Point Breeze as time goes on, and you'll see what I'm talking about. When you relocate them within your city, the murders just move to another part of your city. This is what's going on in Philly.

When your murdering population not only decamps but also decamps to areas where the police forces are less busy with violent crime, they also tend to murder quite a bit less. Loss of the hood plus fewer bad encounters with other fellow hood rats plus a police force that is more than capable of refocusing attention towards a smaller influx of violent people who have relocated in == lower aggregate murders.

They still happen, but less frequently and that makes people feel safer.

Philly's murder pattern tends to be a lot less random and a lot more targeted. Drug involvement and arguments are the chief causes. So if you don't deal, and you generally keep to yourself, generally it doesn't matter if the murderers live closer. When sh*t goes down your likelihood of being involved in it is low. It's not zero, but it's pretty low.

Gun homicides of course are the most popular form. Controlling straw purchasers by imposing first-time maximum sentences will dramatically drive up the street prices of most firearms. Probably to MSRP or higher. Sending more people upstate who violate PUFA would also go a long way towards dropping the homicide rate too. People who get locked up in Philly don't ever really care about their PUFA charges. If Carrying a Firearm W/O A License in Phila carried a minimum of 4 with parole in 1-2 years, I think the street calculus would change quite a bit.

I'm participating in CeaseFirePA's CourtWatch program and it's just silly the people who parade through sentencing not really caring at all about their gun possession charges; and for several Common Pleas judges, they just don't give the charges any weight either. It's ridiculous.

If you're anti-2nd Amendment, this should disturb you because it gives pro-2nd Amendment people a giant platform to stand on: the current laws are being used and charged against criminals, but the sentences imposed are basically nothing. So essentially judges have mooted the law on their own by rarely ever handing out stiff sentences on gun charges.

So, why pass more laws that won't be enforced by the judiciary?

**ScottBudman** · 11-28-2012, 08:13 PM

New York City logs murder-free Monday, police say - CNN.com

"There was not a single reported slaying, stabbing, shooting or knifing in any of the five boroughs on Monday, according to the New York Police Department."

**billy ross** · 11-28-2012, 08:28 PM

Originally Posted by Naveen

DC. I'd be interested in seeing the crime stats over the past 10 years in Prince George's county. Can't be pretty.

NYC. Where is the "murdering population" being driven to? Long Island? Jersey? I think here it may have more to do with a better functioning economy, and that even at the lower end of the scale, there are more jobs to be had than in Philly.

PA. Reading. Allentown. E. Stroudsburg. You haven't noticed? Check out Monroe County. Follow 80 west from NYC. Drive until you qualify. Then hope for the mythical train line to Scranton to actually happen.

**OffenseTaken** · 11-29-2012, 01:26 AM

Originally Posted by billy ross

PA. Reading. Allentown. E. Stroudsburg. You haven't noticed? Check out Monroe County. Follow 80 west from NYC. Drive until you qualify. Then hope for the mythical train line to Scranton to actually happen.

Yeah well, follow 95 east from the GW bridge and you'll see a lot of neighborhoods where the poors haven't left yet. (The Bronx is still the poorest county in New York State, including even the Adirondacks and Western NY.) And as I already said upthread, there are huge swaths of Staten Island and Brooklyn and still even some parts of Manhattan that are just as rough-and-tumble as they were thirty years ago. You can drop the whole city of Philadelphia in the slums of New York and lose it.

People don't resort to violent crime as much in New York these days because they're either dissuaded from it by a robust local economy, or prevented by good policing. And the fact is, Philadelphia doesn't have much of either.