30 something 'professional' couple - what greater CC area?

[Malloy]

Had this discussion Saturday with a client (race car guy) from NY, considering a move to Philly. It was interesting as I am considering a move closer to the CC grid. The client and his wife are in their mid 30s with a 1 year old. $170k combined income with limited income growth - income may drop a bit as the kid gets older and the parents work less.

Main criteria:
-greater CC area
-walkable (no need to expand on this)
-big 2 br or small 3br home under $350k 1100-1300sqft $300k is the ideal target price for a home that needs some work
-an area that still has room for nice appreciation, but is not too rough (too rough= current Point Breeze, GHO of 5-7 years ago, west of the El in Kensington, Brewerytown, Mantua etc)

Grad Hospital and Hawthorne seem to fit the bill best, but finding the above home is possible but not easy.
BV closest to Washington.
No Libs also fits kinda, but it seems like there are more big baller homes going in and the more modest homes are harder to find.
Fishtown will def. improve more but I question it's long term appreciation trend. There are plenty of (still) overpriced condos with big condo fees in NoLibs that price range, but I think most are losers for the long run.

You can find small homes in QV, BV, Fairmount that fit the criteria, but those areas seem to have leveled off as far as appreciation. I think they will continue to appreciate, but at a slow/steady pace. Most of Point Breeze is very underwhelming to me, but the area know as Newbold is pretty cool. A bit rough for some but prob a solid long term play, even at current buy in prices.

What do you all think?

[BarryG]

If you are considering NoLibs, PB, and Newbold as close enough o CC--East Passyunk and Pennsport fit very well, though I wouldn't buy in the hopes if major appreciation.

[Malloy]

Much like East Falls, I think those areas have leveled off for the most part and will just move with the market. The dumpy area between the 2 will obviously get better and great appreciation will occur, but all in all 250-300k seems like a nice level for a Passyunk Square/East Passyunk 3/1. This is all opinion of course....I'd like to hear more opinions.

Even though GHO was infiltrated with some **** new construction, it still has a great mix of homes...many significant. Proximity is a no brainer. Obviously a lot of people saw this 10 years ago so they hopped in at low prices, but were able to tolerate the blight.

[five apples]

Much like East Falls, I think those areas have leveled off for the most part and will just move with the market. The dumpy area between the 2 will obviously get better and great appreciation will occur, but all in all 250-300k seems like a nice level for a Passyunk Square/East Passyunk 3/1. This is all opinion of course....I'd like to hear more opinions.

Even though GHO was infiltrated with some **** new construction, it still has a great mix of homes...many significant. Proximity is a no brainer. Obviously a lot of people saw this 10 years ago so they hopped in at low prices, but were able to tolerate the blight.

I think Fairmount/Art Museum area would actually be a good fit, ironically because housing values in parts of that area have declined, but I am certain are going to rebound again. You could get a nice place for 350k there. Also, in Passyunk Square, things just keep getting added on the Avenue and I think you could probably still get a good deal on a decent sized house for 350k. I look at prices in the hood and they are all over the place. A savvy buyer, with a good agent I think could do well. And by do good I mean a big brownstone on a numbered street.

I think NoLibs and GHO are both potentially going to see limited value growth in the near term, but long term I think they will get better. I drive around GHO and there still are some crappy blocks and shells and lots to be added. I would say GHO over NoLibs though because it is so much closer to CC, and this is pure uninformed observation, but the quality of housings seems higher.

[Malloy]

Good points, esp Fairmount. It is really an amazing place to life and it does seem like prices have dropped a bit. I saw a few decent homes around $300 which I didn't think was possible.

[thoth]

You know the market as well and probably better than the rest of us. There are only so many neighborhoods that abut CC and I think you've hit just about all of them. I'm no realtor or particular expert on the subject, but as far a dramatic appreciation goes I think Philly has sort of tapped out most of the low hanging fruit.

There's still plenty of infill that could happen in places like Pennsport or Fishtown, but I agree with you that most of the already stable neighborhoods are probably not to radically change in value. I think we've shifted to the next layer of redevelopment, with Mantua, Brewerytown, Kensington and Cobbs Creek leading as far as jumps in value go, and that will happen more slowly than in the past, IMO.

For your clients, I think immediately above Girard around 3rd and 4th might be a good medium. The first blocks above Girard has some good housing stock, has a QOL basically the same as the NoLibs blocks immediately south of Girard, is almost certainly on the upswing and probably still has some deals from being associated with larger Kensington. I don't think it'll stay that way for long, I've already seen new infill up there. I lived in the neighborhood back when and it was never terrible. I always admired certain under-appreciated blocks, like Leithgow. 1213 North Leithgow Street, Philadelphia PA | MLS# 6048337 - Trulia

I they were a little younger and crazier, the southern and easternmost parts of Mantua would actually fit the bill. There are still pretty cheap homes there, the proximity to CC is crazy on the eastern side of the neighborhood, and there a couple blocks with intact, decent housing. The vacant middle of the neighborhood will fill in as Drexel continues expansion and Powelton organizes more resistance to rentals. And ironically the fact that there is such little population left has caused the crime rate to drop off massively in the last couple of years. Check the stats.

What about you? Most people move closer to East Falls when they get older. Early onset mid-life crisis drawing you back into town?

[annie]

Not to be a broken PS record but are schools are concern at all?

[billy ross]

Are you both blind? I've got two words for you.


Divine
Lorraine

Get out a map and check out where it is. It's south of Girard. It's on the subway. It's walkable to Dilworth Plaza. It's walkable to a resurgent Temple. It's a no-brainer. Schuylkill/Graduate Hospital was a salient easily walkable to one of Philly's resurgent squares. The Divine Lorraine area is a salient easily walkable to three of Philly's resurgent squares, plus the soon to be made over Spring Garden Trail. That area will be unrecognizable in 15 years time, just as Schuylkill is unrecognizable from its state in 1997. No need to go above Girard or below Washington.

You know the market as well and probably better than the rest of us. There are only so many neighborhoods that abut CC and I think you've hit just about all of them. I'm no realtor or particular expert on the subject, but as far a dramatic appreciation goes I think Philly has sort of tapped out most of the low hanging fruit.

There's still plenty of infill that could happen in places like Pennsport or Fishtown, but I agree with you that most of the already stable neighborhoods are probably not to radically change in value. I think we've shifted to the next layer of redevelopment, with Mantua, Brewerytown, Kensington and Cobbs Creek leading as far as jumps in value go, and that will happen more slowly than in the past, IMO.

For your clients, I think immediately above Girard around 3rd and 4th might be a good medium. The first blocks above Girard has some good housing stock, has a QOL basically the same as the NoLibs blocks immediately south of Girard, is almost certainly on the upswing and probably still has some deals from being associated with larger Kensington. I don't think it'll stay that way for long, I've already seen new infill up there. I lived in the neighborhood back when and it was never terrible. I always admired certain under-appreciated blocks, like Leithgow. 1213 North Leithgow Street, Philadelphia PA | MLS# 6048337 - Trulia

I they were a little younger and crazier, the southern and easternmost parts of Mantua would actually fit the bill. There are still pretty cheap homes there, the proximity to CC is crazy on the eastern side of the neighborhood, and there a couple blocks with intact, decent housing. The vacant middle of the neighborhood will fill in as Drexel continues expansion and Powelton organizes more resistance to rentals. And ironically the fact that there is such little population left has caused the crime rate to drop off massively in the last couple of years. Check the stats.

What about you? Most people move closer to East Falls when they get older. Early onset mid-life crisis drawing you back into town?

[Ray K.]

My wife and I were in a similar situation with a few distinct differences. We were living in a two-bedroom condo in the city but had twins (which made the place much smaller quickly). When we thought it best to move we opted for Bella Vista. A few factors help sway us - the closeness of two supermarkets, no need for a car (we both walk to our respective jobs) and the Meredith school (not to mention the multiple playgrounds and general family vibe). Private school for both is probably out of our price range but Meredith offers a quality free education. We probably paid a bit more for a house (and not a grand thing by most standards - my brother is hitting the burbs with a place that could probably fit my home in his rec room) than we wanted but factoring in the cost savings in vehicle ownership as well as the potential for free education it helps balance things out.

I have no complaints - love the area and think it's great for both family and adult social activities.

[3rd&Brown]

I was going to mention the school thing as well. Are they at all concerned about the schools? It sounds like once they get here, they're in it for the long haul.

If schools are at all an issue, I would try to get into the Meredith, obviously, or Nebinger or Stanton catchments. The last two seem to be the local schools in the fringe neighborhoods which have made the most progress.

As far as appreciation goes...I think it's hard to say which neighborhoods have really tapped out. I mean, every time I think G-Ho has tapped out, it keeps chugging and something else comes along. Now, it's the 4 proposed 30-40 story towers CHOP wants to build on the Schuykill Avenue site. You don't think that will increase demand dramatically in the immediate area? I do.

And there are still some lower priced homes in the western portion of the 'hood, particularly below Christian...the same micro-geography which would benefit the most (probably) from CHOP's expansion.

From a sheer appreciation perspective, I think the only within-Girard neighborhood that qualifies is Francisville. Still has a long way to go, but is seeing dramatic development already (though prices have shot up, recently). In NoLibs, it's the new construction that is consistently baller...there are still many relatively modest resales that come online in the neighborhood, though I think they should focus on a 3 bedroom instead of a two.

This is a newer house that needs some work, but has parking, at a good price point. I don't love the block (because the housing stock is incredibly uniform) but the location within NoLibs can't be beat. This is also a house where I think the taxes will stay basically the same under full value. Not all of NoLibs has been unscathed in recent years with reassessments, and this house is already taxed above 1% of value.

415 Brown Street

[thoth]

So you're basically suggesting Francisville. While it's definitely going to continue to appreciate, there's already been some huge price jumps and the QOL around Ridge is still pretty hood. Keep the criteria in mind. I dunno. It'd be like buying into the area I suggested before they built the Piazza and Supermarket, and if Germantown Ave was a lightening rod for criminality instead of just being vacant.

Are you both blind? I've got two words for you.


Divine
Lorraine

Get out a map and check out where it is. It's south of Girard. It's on the subway. It's walkable to Dilworth Plaza. It's walkable to a resurgent Temple. It's a no-brainer. Schuylkill/Graduate Hospital was a salient easily walkable to one of Philly's resurgent squares. The Divine Lorraine area is a salient easily walkable to three of Philly's resurgent squares, plus the soon to be made over Spring Garden Trail. That area will be unrecognizable in 15 years time, just as Schuylkill is unrecognizable from its state in 1997. No need to go above Girard or below Washington.

[billy ross]

I was going to mention the school thing as well. Are they at all concerned about the schools? It sounds like once they get here, they're in it for the long haul.

If schools are at all an issue, I would try to get into the Meredith, obviously, or Nebinger or Stanton catchments. The last two seem to be the local schools in the fringe neighborhoods which have made the most progress.

As far as appreciation goes...I think it's hard to say which neighborhoods have really tapped out. I mean, every time I think G-Ho has tapped out, it keeps chugging and something else comes along. Now, it's the 4 proposed 30-40 story towers CHOP wants to build on the Schuykill Avenue site. You don't think that will increase demand dramatically in the immediate area? I do.

And there are still some lower priced homes in the western portion of the 'hood, particularly below Christian...the same micro-geography which would benefit the most (probably) from CHOP's expansion.

From a sheer appreciation perspective, I think the only within-Girard neighborhood that qualifies is Francisville. Still has a long way to go, but is seeing dramatic development already (though prices have shot up, recently). In NoLibs, it's the new construction that is consistently baller...there are still many relatively modest resales that come online in the neighborhood, though I think they should focus on a 3 bedroom instead of a two.

This is a newer house that needs some work, but has parking, at a good price point. I don't love the block (because the housing stock is incredibly uniform) but the location within NoLibs can't be beat. This is also a house where I think the taxes will stay basically the same under full value. Not all of NoLibs has been unscathed in recent years with reassessments, and this house is already taxed above 1% of value.

415 Brown Street

Children's wants to build four 30-40 storey towers on the river banks? Why haven't I heard of this? Where did you see it? I had figured they'd reuse the tank factory. Overall, you raise good points. In that neighborhood you're still only six blocks from Rittenhouse Square, and along the Schuylkill River Trail to boot, with easy access on foot to the jobs in Center City and University City, so I don't see the present price structure there as being at or anywhere close to its ceiling. I disagree with your emphasis on catchment areas for schools, though, for two reasons. One is that as so many schools close catchment areas will change radically, so why pay a premium today for something that may very well evaporate or expand greatly going forward? Two is that slots at quality/in demand schools are intentionally being opened up as slots at crappy/not sought after schools are eliminated - I foresee a day when lotteries for getting your kid into a decent school become a barbaric thing of the past, like fuel rationing is today, so again why pay a premium today for something that may very well evaporate or become more democratically available going forward? The kid's only one, and class differences in schools don't really matter until about 8 or 9, so they have time for the world to change.

So you're basically suggesting Francisville. While it's definitely going to continue to appreciate, there's already been some huge price jumps and the QOL around Ridge is still pretty hood. Keep the criteria in mind. I dunno. It'd be like buying into the area I suggested before they built the Piazza and Supermarket, and if Germantown Ave was a lightening rod for criminality instead of just being vacant.

Francisville, or if they could find something in Spring Garden. Also look east of Broad too, although I'm picturing mostly wastelands there today. The gentrification won't stop at Broad, or at Fairmount, either. It'll fill in very quickly in the next boom that is sure to follow this prolonged bust (that has hit the nation much, much harder than it's hit Philly - our experience of it has been mostly the collapse of the expensive condo market, not the redevelopment of fringy areas of the city, which has proceeded apace). Just find a comfortable block close to the Fairmount or the Girard subway stations. That's what I would do if I were looking. Girard gets local, express, and Ridge Avenue subway service, making it super-convenient. Heavy hitter developers are going ape at Spring Garden. Nutter's pushing really, really, really hard to get the Divine Lorraine taken care of. You really can't lose in that corridor. Plus, the Convention Center's front door is on North Broad now. At some point the (or new) management of the center will get that figured out and conventioneers will be milling around there all of the time. Broad Street from Temple to City Hall will be totally redeveloped over the course of this decade and next.

[devilspocket]

Children's wants to build four 30-40 storey towers on the river banks? Why haven't I heard of this? Where did you see it? I had figured they'd reuse the tank factory.

CHOP Update

[thoth]

Francisville, or if they could find something in Spring Garden. Also look east of Broad too, although I'm picturing mostly wastelands there today. The gentrification won't stop at Broad, or at Fairmount, either. It'll fill in very quickly in the next boom that is sure to follow this prolonged bust (that has hit the nation much, much harder than it's hit Philly - our experience of it has been mostly the collapse of the expensive condo market, not the redevelopment of fringy areas of the city, which has proceeded apace). Just find a comfortable block close to the Fairmount or the Girard subway stations. That's what I would do if I were looking. Girard gets local, express, and Ridge Avenue subway service, making it super-convenient. Heavy hitter developers are going ape at Spring Garden. Nutter's pushing really, really, really hard to get the Divine Lorraine taken care of. You really can't lose in that corridor. Plus, the Convention Center's front door is on North Broad now. At some point the (or new) management of the center will get that figured out and conventioneers will be milling around there all of the time. Broad Street from Temple to City Hall will be totally redeveloped over the course of this decade and next.

Spring Garden is already priced out west of Broad, east of broad is still pretty crummy for people who are apparently trying to avoid the ghetto or find an attractive house that will appreciate in value. That area was most vacant previously and is notable now because it has had so much new construction. I don't think you're wrong about and of these areas, I just think of them as being a little rough for people with a baby.

[Malloy]

Thanks for the feedback guys. They have planned for 'private' school. That may change, who knows.

3&B - that seems like a really good price. They may be bland and lacking character but it seems like a good place to live if the construction is solid. Any idea if they are poorly built? Noise issues? Staircases shake when a 150lb person walks up them? Bad neighbors?

Ross- the DL area (East) and Francisville are too seedy for them. Spring Garden, closest to Fairmount is cool but not exactly cheap.

GHO still gets my vote I think. There is still a good amount of blight to be cleaned up but it's not too 'scary' any more. Seems like the perfect storm.

Ray- BV is obviously awesome but I think it is pretty much all cleaned up. Closest to Washington seems to be the most affordable part for obvious reasons.

thoth - I kinda miss living on the grid. I def prefer it, but it all depends on budget. EF is great - no complaints at all.

[billy ross]

Spring Garden is already priced out west of Broad, east of broad is still pretty crummy for people who are apparently trying to avoid the ghetto or find an attractive house that will appreciate in value. That area was most vacant previously and is notable now because it has had so much new construction. I don't think you're wrong about and of these areas, I just think of them as being a little rough for people with a baby.

Thanks for the feedback guys. They have planned for 'private' school. That may change, who knows.

3&B - that seems like a really good price. They may be bland and lacking character but it seems like a good place to live if the construction is solid. Any idea if they are poorly built? Noise issues? Staircases shake when a 150lb person walks up them? Bad neighbors?

Ross- the DL area (East) and Francisville are too seedy for them. Spring Garden, closest to Fairmount is cool but not exactly cheap.

GHO still gets my vote I think. There is still a good amount of blight to be cleaned up but it's not too 'scary' any more. Seems like the perfect storm.

Ray- BV is obviously awesome but I think it is pretty much all cleaned up. Closest to Washington seems to be the most affordable part for obvious reasons.

thoth - I kinda miss living on the grid. I def prefer it, but it all depends on budget. EF is great - no complaints at all.

So you guys are saying that if you were to stand at the intersection of Broad and Fairmount, the southwest corner and points beyond would be desirable but unaffordable, but the other three corners and points beyond would be affordable but undesirable. I just don't buy that - things don't change that radically at any one particular intersection. We're not talking about the Berlin Wall here; there are no guards demanding passports from people trying to cross the street. I'll try to make a point of going to that intersection and doing a circumnavigation of it with a two block radius to see whether you guys are correct or not. I walked through Francisville a few months ago and I saw very many signs that real change is happening now - it was alot less bleak than it used to be (I used to walk through there around 84-85 after school). I was walking south from Girard or Ridge on one of the numbered streets (I know that is hard to do), and I passed a new, pretty strange bar, and stopped in to buy a beer. They had opened very recently, it seemed. It may have been the Flying Carpet place - it's all a blur to me now.

Regarding SWCC - if they don't mind paying three times what something sold for a few years ago to buy something that will probably be worth twice what it's worth now in the not so distant future, then it'd be a good bet. I was aching to buy a house on Malloy's present block with an asking price of $70k back around 95, but I didn't have the money at the time, since I was young and broke. Now it's probably worth four times that, or maybe more had I beaten them up a little more.

[thoth]

That's the gist of it. Look at the map. NE and you've got blocks of projects, E/SE and you've got a few blocks of desolate institutional uses/industrial/vacant/subsidized housing before hitting a neighborhood that is just recovering from being next to the hyperprojects back in the day. NW you've got francisville, which has seen its prices rise faster than its QoL, IMO.

I'm not "down" on any of these areas (well, except the projects I guess), their futures are good, but I don't see how they meet the criteria of this couple. 300k can get you into a neighborhood with at least some of the amenities they're looking for and less overall sketchiness.

So you guys are saying that if you were to stand at the intersection of Broad and Fairmount, the southwest corner and points beyond would be desirable but unaffordable, but the other three corners and points beyond would be affordable but undesirable.

[AbortedWalrus]

NW you've got francisville, which has seen its prices rise faster than its QoL, IMO.

It's gentrifying at a faster rate than almost any neighborhood in the city, and I dunno that the prices are that high yet either. The church renovation at the corner of 16th and Fairmount had 10 or something condos, each somewhere near or well above 1000 sqft sell for less than $300k each to my knowledge. In the past year and a half there have been like four fairly large condo projects completed from Broad to 16th on Fairmount, and they're in the midst of finishing a large apartment construction as well, and that is going to have commercial attached. Quality of life is definitely going up quickly. It went from being sketchy to walk around at night to feeling like a nice residential area. You've got Osteria, Route 6, and Alla Spina a skip up the street, a proposal for a fresh foods market styled after Palm Tree Market on Fairmount a bit down the street, etc. It's getting pricier, but I don't think it's outpacing the improvements in QoL.

Yeah, you've got the Richard Allen Homes close by, but they're far enough from Francisville to basically have no influence. If something ever gets done with the DL it will probably insulate the area from it even more.

[thoth]

I don't think Francisville's problem is the PHA on the other side of broad, it's the PHA **** in the neighborhood. Ridge and surroundings are still sketchy at night and cut through the middle of the neighborhood. Although there have been promising developments on Broad south and north of F-ville's eastern boundry, The neighborhood itself doesn't offer much in the way of amenities.

Yes, there is a market coming, and that's a great sign. Yes there has been lots of infill, and that's great. Francisville is a good neighborhood and I liked living there, but I'm just saying right now I have a hard time envisioning this mystery couple rolling past the flashing PPD camera on 16th St, cruising down gap-toothed Ridge Ave and past the trailer/newsstand/house on Poplar and thinking "oh this neighborhood doesn't seem sketchy at all. Point Breeze/Newbold got tossed out in first post, and they've at least got some bars and cafes.

It's gentrifying at a faster rate than almost any neighborhood in the city, and I dunno that the prices are that high yet either. The church renovation at the corner of 16th and Fairmount had 10 or something condos, each somewhere near or well above 1000 sqft sell for less than $300k each to my knowledge. In the past year and a half there have been like four fairly large condo projects completed from Broad to 16th on Fairmount, and they're in the midst of finishing a large apartment construction as well, and that is going to have commercial attached. Quality of life is definitely going up quickly. It went from being sketchy to walk around at night to feeling like a nice residential area. You've got Osteria, Route 6, and Alla Spina a skip up the street, a proposal for a fresh foods market styled after Palm Tree Market on Fairmount a bit down the street, etc. It's getting pricier, but I don't think it's outpacing the improvements in QoL.

Yeah, you've got the Richard Allen Homes close by, but they're far enough from Francisville to basically have no influence. If something ever gets done with the DL it will probably insulate the area from it even more.

[billy ross]

Point Breeze is still pretty banged-up, with alot of shady-looking types around, and the murder rate there is atrocious. I never hear about murders or shootings in Francisville. Do you really think the neighborhoods are similar?

I don't think Francisville's problem is the PHA on the other side of broad, it's the PHA **** in the neighborhood. Ridge and surroundings are still sketchy at night and cut through the middle of the neighborhood. Although there have been promising developments on Broad south and north of F-ville's eastern boundry, The neighborhood itself doesn't offer much in the way of amenities.

Yes, there is a market coming, and that's a great sign. Yes there has been lots of infill, and that's great. Francisville is a good neighborhood and I liked living there, but I'm just saying right now I have a hard time envisioning this mystery couple rolling past the flashing PPD camera on 16th St, cruising down gap-toothed Ridge Ave and past the trailer/newsstand/house on Poplar and thinking "oh this neighborhood doesn't seem sketchy at all. Point Breeze/Newbold got tossed out in first post, and they've at least got some bars and cafes.