All things considered, which Philly neighborhood will see the most gentrification in the next 10 years?

**John Goodman** · 11-21-2011, 01:27 PM

???

**Eastcoast** · 11-21-2011, 01:29 PM

Point Breeze.

**Ho Chi Minh** · 11-21-2011, 02:47 PM

PB.

**BarryG** · 11-21-2011, 02:59 PM

I think PB will be held back by the violence and neighborhood opposition. It will slow down development and population growth outside of Newbold and the areas closest to Broad, and good luck getting anything over three stories built.

Of the options listed--tossup between Francisville and Kensington, but Kensington is a much larger neighborhood and the norther part is a long way from gentrification. I mean Bart Blatstein has bet a lot of money on North Broad and Francisville is in better shape to be built up quickly compared to Callowhill.

**Malloy** · 11-21-2011, 03:49 PM

The only thing that could pose a problem with PB - most homes are small 2 story rows. I think that severely limits the 'gentrification' potential. SWCC had a lot of big homes and it was on the right side of Washington. Timing was great with the boom...and it still took >12 years to get where it is today.

**John Goodman** · 11-21-2011, 04:18 PM

Originally Posted by BarryG

I think PB will be held back by the violence and neighborhood opposition. It will slow down development and population growth outside of Newbold and the areas closest to Broad, and good luck getting anything over three stories built.

Of the options listed--tossup between Francisville and Kensington, but Kensington is a much larger neighborhood and the norther part is a long way from gentrification. I mean Bart Blatstein has bet a lot of money on North Broad and Francisville is in better shape to be built up quickly compared to Callowhill.

Is there a neighborhood not listed that you think will out perform the listed?

When I say Kensington I really mean the area bound by Front, Kensington Ave and Lehigh. Areas north of that are probably are a long ways off. I like Kensington because of the fact that it's already mostly white or latino, they have a pro development community group, easy transit access to Center City, the highest population of hipsters are there and the housing is architecturally interesting.

**BarryG** · 11-21-2011, 04:34 PM

Originally Posted by John Goodman

Is there a neighborhood not listed that you think will out perform the listed?

When I say Kensington I really mean the area bound by Front, Kensington Ave and Lehigh. Areas north of that are probably are a long ways off. I like Kensington because of the fact that it's already mostly white or latino, they have a pro development community group, easy transit access to Center City, the highest population of hipsters are there and the housing is architecturally interesting.

I think Dickinson Narrows, Pennsport, Lower Moyamensing, and the area around 15th & Ritner are often overlook in these conversations, but these areas (with the exception of Dickinson Narrows) don't need much infill, don't have a lot of room for new developments, and don't have insanely low property values, so I don't know if the overall effect of gentrification will be as pronounced as the neighborhoods you listed.

Dickinson Narrows does have a bunch of vacant lots and f'd up housing that could/should be demolished. And maybe something will happen with Mt Sinai in our lifetimes.

**billy ross** · 11-21-2011, 04:45 PM

Originally Posted by John Goodman

Is there a neighborhood not listed that you think will out perform the listed?

When I say Kensington I really mean the area bound by Front, Kensington Ave and Lehigh. Areas north of that are probably are a long ways off. I like Kensington because of the fact that it's already mostly white or latino, they have a pro development community group, easy transit access to Center City, the highest population of hipsters are there and the housing is architecturally interesting.

Mayfair? Bridesburg? Port Richmond? Germantown? The first three are white and white neighborhoods are generally the first to gentrify, due to fear of crime in non-white neighborhoods. Also Tacony? Strawberry Mansion? Logan? Roxborough? Parkside? I'm betting on Germantown but if I weren't already invested I'd get deep into Mantua, Point Breeze, or Lower North Philly. On the flip side, I'd prefer to get involved with a strong, active community. No need to invent things out of nothing. That's why I list Mayfair as a dark horse. In hindsight East Falls was easy because it had a functioning community, a great built environment and topography, and great transportation. That stuff matters. That's why I'm in Germantown. Still, the zeitgeist is quick to jump around, and I suspect it won't pick aOut Germantown as The Next Great Neighborhood.

**Sharkfood** · 11-21-2011, 05:18 PM

I think the choices should have included:

* Templetown/North Central

* Old Kensington/South Kensington

It's true Kensington was a choice, but the pollster later clarified that he was referrring
to areas east of front St. West of Front St. to 6th, from Berks to Girard has tremendous
potential since it's bounded by Fishtown on one side and Northern Liberties on the other and it is also close to several El stops.

Point Breeze is going gangbusters, but more and more we are seeing consolidation north of Wharton and east of 18th St. In other words, rather than continue pushing south and west, developers are intensifying activity in the northern and eastern sections. By the time you get to Reed, you really start feeling the presence of the ghetto.

**Dayman** · 11-21-2011, 07:27 PM

I think Kensington will continue to, but not much north of the train tracks. It's a natural barrier to progress and a damn nasty one at that.

**supersupper** · 11-21-2011, 07:33 PM

Follow the creative class. Kensington.

**eldondre** · 11-21-2011, 07:37 PM

if the question is, which will see the most gentrification as a proportion of the whole, I have to go with francisville. it's relatively small, have a lot of vacant land, and are well located. spring garden east will see a similar change. in total gentrification, maybe point breeze will see a larger number of new people but have a lower proportion due to its size.
I think the race theory has fallen to the wayside, location trumps race...assuming port richmond even has lower crime than francisville.
one thing I've been wondering is when the three blocks between francisville and templetown will be bridged. on broad the blue horizon is in this area. the sooner that happens, the sooner people move into adam's nieghborhood.

**Dayman** · 11-21-2011, 07:41 PM

Originally Posted by eldondre

if the question is, which will see the most gentrification as a proportion of the whole, I have to go with francisville. it's relatively small, have a lot of vacant land, and are well located. spring garden east will see a similar change. in total gentrification, maybe point breeze will see a larger number of new people but have a lower proportion due to its size.
I think the race theory has fallen to the wayside, location trumps race...assuming port richmond even has lower crime than francisville.
one thing I've been wondering is when the three blocks between francisville and templetown will be bridged. on broad the blue horizon is in this area. the sooner that happens, the sooner people move into adam's nieghborhood.

I don't know if it's that what's familiar isn't as frightening, but two or three nights I was in Francisville...and I wasn't really wanting to hand around too long.

**3rd&Brown** · 11-21-2011, 08:28 PM

all of the above?

philly's on a roll and i can't wait for the economy to pick up. it will be a really exciting time to be in the city.

and if green runs for mayor after nutter, we will have had pretty good mayors for 24 of the most recent 32 years. (rendell/nutter/green).

i do think proportionally, kensington will "pop" the most simply because it has the most open space. that's what happened and is still happening in northern liberties. it's easier to improve demographics quickly when you're starting from basically a blank slate and not having to wait for each house to turn over, one by one. so, when you look at the census in ten years, i think the biggest income gains will be in 19122 simply because it will probably have 1,000s of new residents who didn't displace anything.

that being said, i think i'd rather live in newbold/point breeze. when i do sell my place, i think i'm heading to souf filly, though i will miss northern liberties, which i do believe has the friendliest people in the city. but of course, i'm biased.

**MariusPontmercy** · 11-21-2011, 08:29 PM

What's interesting to note is what effect nearby development is going to have on adjacent neighborhoods. You may see consolidation on the northern and eastern boundaries of Point Breeze, but that doesn't mean other things aren't changing within Point Breeze proper now because of that which may facilitate more development beyond those boundaries.

**eldondre** · 11-21-2011, 08:50 PM

Originally Posted by Dayman

I don't know if it's that what's familiar isn't as frightening, but two or three nights I was in Francisville...and I wasn't really wanting to hand around too long.

francisville is pretty desolate in parts but there seem to be just as many crimes in port richmond, perhaps more. moreover, crime is definitely down in francisville and will probably continue to trend down. much like 3rd and brown says about kensington, there is very little to displace in francisville. the only thing really holding it back is the amount of publicly owned land which always has an unclear future. that said, int eh short time I've been up there, there have been dramatic changes.
and pontmercy is right, the groundwork for change is usually laid long before it's obvious to the outsider.

**ArcticSplash** · 11-21-2011, 08:56 PM

Originally Posted by supersupper

Follow the creative class. Kensington.

It's happening in Kensington faster than in Point Breeze.

Specifically, EAST Kensington, well the large chunk of East Kensington that is south of the Conrail train barrier (Lehigh Ave). The civic associations that this area covers, EKNA and ORCA, have a high rate of redevelopment activity going on. Civic activism is almost now at the same level as FNA, which is more richly developed than either EKNA or ORCA. The only other neighborhood where there is this much rehab activity going on is Point Breeze, and most PB activity is limited to vacant lot development. In Kensington it's existing-home rehabs because there's a ton of outdated rowhomes that turn over and rehabbers gut them out to update them with all the new mod cons that new first time homebuyers demand.

Kensington has a lot of medium-sized two stories, and a LOT of big stately 3 stories. Most of your big 3 stories are on wide streets. These were all built for the "managerial class" and designed for the large Irish families of the day... 12+ kids. We also got brownstone fronts where there's not that many of those in PB. Kensington is way more architecturally interesting.

And you can take your pick here between a builder's home, or a restoration to original conditions. The prices in Kensington are fairer than PB compared to the amount of crime that you're going to have to put up with, and there's a TON of land in East Kensington available for very large development projects closer to the EL stations. SEPTA bus service and the EL is very rich, so Kensington enjoys a lot more trans than many other hoods.

**billy ross** · 11-21-2011, 08:56 PM

Originally Posted by eldondre

if the question is, which will see the most gentrification as a proportion of the whole, I have to go with francisville. it's relatively small, have a lot of vacant land, and are well located. spring garden east will see a similar change. in total gentrification, maybe point breeze will see a larger number of new people but have a lower proportion due to its size.
I think the race theory has fallen to the wayside, location trumps race...assuming port richmond even has lower crime than francisville.
one thing I've been wondering is when the three blocks between francisville and templetown
will be bridged. on broad the blue horizon is in this area. the sooner that happens, the sooner people move into adam's nieghborhood.

That's only because all of the white working class neighborhoods anywhere near Center City have been gentrified already; the pond has been fished out. The Northeast is the big exception to this, plus Roxborough, and neither is anywhere close to CC. That's why Roxborough and Mayfair are on my list of neighborhoods to pay attention to - they're solid white working-class areas. I can guarantee you that if Strawberry Mansion were still white it would have been gentrified long, long ago, just as Fairmount was. Using that logic Old Kensington is a no brainer, since it still has a decent-sized white population and since it is so well-located, and since it is sufficiently racially diverse that the gentrifiers won't stick out like sore thumbs. Norris Square too.

**Preesi** · 11-21-2011, 09:04 PM

Dilworth plaza

**Sharkfood** · 11-21-2011, 10:36 PM

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

all of the above?

philly's on a roll and i can't wait for the economy to pick up. it will be a really exciting time to be in the city.

and if green runs for mayor after nutter, we will have had pretty good mayors for 24 of the most recent 32 years. (rendell/nutter/green).

i do think proportionally, kensington will "pop" the most simply because it has the most open space. that's what happened and is still happening in northern liberties. it's easier to improve demographics quickly when you're starting from basically a blank slate and not having to wait for each house to turn over, one by one. so, when you look at the census in ten years, i think the biggest income gains will be in 19122 simply because it will probably have 1,000s of new residents who didn't displace anything.

that being said, i think i'd rather live in newbold/point breeze. when i do sell my place, i think i'm hea
ding to souf filly, though i will miss northern liberties, which i do believe has the friendliest people in the
city. but of course, i'm biased.

This is an important point. It is much easier to transform a neighborhood or a block when you're starting from a blank slate. Especially if you're trying to transform a ghetto area.

One of the reasons I'm pessimistic about west Philly is too much of it is intact. To try to push university
City westward is house to house combat. In a typical row house block, you could have 60 or 70 houses.
It takes a hell of a long time for a block like that to change character.

On the other hand, strawberry mansion is depopulating so quickly that I think someone with vision could have a real impact and change the direction of the area.