Northern Liberties Setting Itself Up For an Construction Crash?

**mixiboi** · 08-25-2012, 10:39 PM

Because hyper threads are cool these days...But this is what they are building where once the horses of Old City used to live:

219 GEORGE ST, Philadelphia PA 19123

On that block alone housing went up 300% with all the construction there. From Liberty Walk till this the Stables...Its insane....

And when you zoom out and see all the rest of the housing plans(30 new 3 story homes)..All this building will end either good or bad...

**Naveen** · 08-26-2012, 12:07 AM

I really don't get to Northern Liberties much. So I'd heard about all the change and how fast growing the place is and I ended up swinging by the other day after not setting foot in the neighborhood in almost 5 years. I did a little walkabout, seeing "the sights".

So much has changed...but man, there is still a long way to go. The most noticeable thing are all the still-vacant lots, the industrial and unrehabbed feel to so many of the buildings that do exist. Cracked sidewalks, weeds, trash (next to the Piazza no less). Wow. If this is progress, it's funny to think we thought of the neighborhood as changed even 5 years ago.

I try to look at things by non-Philly standards these days, and by that measure, there's still much to do.

So considering that, what justifies the housing prices? Proximity to CC, the fact that these houses seem to be high-end...but also I think the perception that there's still a ways to go for NoLibs, and that if a house is worth $750,000 today, imagine what it will be worth when the neighborhood is actually developed and doesn't look it does now, the urban equivalent of a meth-head who's halfway back to joining the world of normal people.

**mixiboi** · 08-26-2012, 03:31 PM

Feed me more:

Update: Mixed-Use Development at 2nd and Brown is a Go | NakedPhilly

Update: Incomplete Building Near 2nd and Brown Coming Back to Life? | NakedPhilly

**thoth** · 08-26-2012, 07:40 PM

Originally Posted by Naveen

I really don't get to Northern Liberties much. So I'd heard about all the change and how fast growing the place is and I ended up swinging by the other day after not setting foot in the neighborhood in almost 5 years. I did a little walkabout, seeing "the sights".

So much has changed...but man, there is still a long way to go. The most noticeable thing are all the still-vacant lots, the industrial and unrehabbed feel to so many of the buildings that do exist. Cracked sidewalks, weeds, trash (next to the Piazza no less). Wow. If this is progress, it's funny to think we thought of the neighborhood as changed even 5 years ago.

I try to look at things by non-Philly standards these days, and by that measure, there's still much to do.

So considering that, what justifies the housing prices? Proximity to CC, the fact that these houses seem to be high-end...but also I think the perception that there's still a ways to go for NoLibs, and that if a house is worth $750,000 today, imagine what it will be worth when the neighborhood is actually developed and doesn't look it does now, the urban equivalent of a meth-head who's halfway back to joining the world of normal people.

I think a certain degree of that is "developer's blight". Tower is in a relative holding pattern in that neighborhood, and is still the largest landowner in the area by far. A number of the larger lots/buildings are theirs and awaiting future "phases" of various development projects, so dunno what you can do there. 2nd street has made significant progress in the last year but suffers from crappy delusional landlords holding onto **** buildings forever waiting for their number to come up. The guy who owns the two grassy lots across from Cantina had a lame little "for sale" sign with a phone number written in pen. I called and he said he wanted $1.2mil for both, which is ludicrous and in the meantime he can't be asked to even trim the grass there. I don't know what you do in that situation where crazy increases in land value spur people to hold onto land forever hoping for even crazier land values.

**mixiboi** · 08-26-2012, 08:38 PM

I guess the same can be said about Old City on 2nd between Market and chestnut

**thoth** · 08-26-2012, 09:00 PM

Originally Posted by mixiboi

I guess the same can be said about Old City on 2nd between Market and chestnut

presumably. I've asked about those mysteriously vacant buildings multiple times on here and PB, and never gotten a definitive response, so I assume the same.

**mixiboi** · 08-26-2012, 09:03 PM

Well, all I know about them is it was once an Arcade in the 80s and been closed since with for sale signs come and go over the years...

**lankenau** · 08-27-2012, 09:12 AM

Replacing the broken sidewalks on 2nd St would go a long way to improving the community...

**3rd&Brown** · 08-27-2012, 11:42 AM

I've said it a million times and I'll say it a million more. As far as the neighborhood has come, it still has a long way to go.

There is a lot of fallow land remaining in the neighborhood, but I can say this. I think Northern Liberties appeal is two fold.

1. It has a distinct identity, for better or worse, that I think attracts a very particular type of person. Let's say, as opposed to Graduate Hospital, which attracts people who want to live near Penn or who want to live near Rittenhouse. The neighborhood in and of itself doesn't really have an identity and many of the people there, IMO, aren't interested in forging one. I think that because of the identity we have (at least when it comes to homeowners, not renters), there is a level of civic engagement and friendliness that you don't find in other Philadelphia neighborhoods.

2. Northern Liberties is still virtually the only neighborhood in the city where a modern aesthetic is encouraged and appreciated. While we have our share of faux colonial townhomes, we're also the only neighborhood that doesn't scoff at modern design. In fact, it's encouraged. So, if you want newish construction and aren't a fake fypon colonial type of person, then Northern Liberties gives you the best selection of homes.

That is and will remain our niche.

**ArcticSplash** · 08-27-2012, 01:16 PM

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

2. Northern Liberties is still virtually the only neighborhood in the city where a modern aesthetic is encouraged and appreciated. While we have our share of faux colonial townhomes, we're also the only neighborhood that doesn't scoff at modern design. In fact, it's encouraged. So, if you want newish construction and aren't a fake fypon colonial type of person, then Northern Liberties gives you the best selection of homes.

That is and will remain our niche.

That is total BS there's Jetsons-style houses going up behind my friggin house, not Tyvek Colonials. Moto Design is doing the 30 houses on the block right behind my own house... in Kensington. There's modern designs going up in Fishtown.

Is anybody gonna build a multi-block Megaplex over here modeled after a moldy sponge? Well--hasn't happened yet. Yes, NoLibs is a unique neighborhood. But it's not unique simply because it's the ONLY neighborhood that doesn't reject modern design. That's a ludicrous statement to make.

**3rd&Brown** · 08-27-2012, 03:49 PM

Originally Posted by ArticSplash

Yes, NoLibs is a unique neighborhood. But it's not unique simply because it's the ONLY neighborhood that doesn't reject modern design. That's a ludicrous statement to make.

Okay. So it was for a long time. And it remains the most desireable of the neighborhoods where it (modern design) has been embraced (NoLibs, Northern Fishtown, East/South Kensington). Other wise, my statement is patently true.

Try to build Stable Flats in Fairmount, Spring Garden, Fitler, BV, QV, Old City, or Pennsport and see what sort of reaction you get.

It wouldn't be pretty.

**billy ross** · 08-27-2012, 04:08 PM

Originally Posted by thoth

I think a certain degree of that is "developer's blight". Tower is in a relative holding pattern in that neighborhood, and is still the largest landowner in the area by far. A number of the larger lots/buildings are theirs and awaiting future "phases" of various development projects, so dunno what you can do there. 2nd street has made significant progress in the last year but suffers from crappy delusional landlords holding onto **** buildings forever waiting for their number to come up. The guy who owns the two grassy lots across from Cantina had a lame little "for sale" sign with a phone number written in pen. I called and he said he wanted $1.2mil for both, which is ludicrous and in the meantime he can't be asked to even trim the grass there. I don't know what you do in that situation where crazy increases in land value spur people to hold onto land forever hoping for even crazier land values.

The solution to that is easy - increase the cost of sitting on the properties by both making it easier to develop them (fix the zoning, fix the union 'tax' in Philly) and increasing property taxes and fees associated with carrying a nonperforming parcel. The first will make some people reach for that pot of gold. The second will make others sell to stop the bleeding. Combining the two will lead to more development happening in a compressed time period. Another thing would be to increase returns to development by increasing sales prices and rents. The first has already been done, with predictable results, via the abatement. However, increasing jobs and the overall wealth in Philly will increase demand and thus help to get these derelict properties developed sooner. Ditto fix public safety and public schools. It will increase demand and cause more crap to go away. These developments tend to happen on the margins, and it won't take much of a push to cause more blight to go away like has been happening for the past decade or so. If a deal is marginal, and the cost of doing it goes down by 5% while the value at the end of the job goes up by 10%, all of a sudden there is an extra 15% of the gross to be gotten. On a formerly marginal $1m deal that's $150k of profit. That's the game that Post Brothers is playing. Better this than needing RCAP funds to make a job happen.

**palvar** · 08-27-2012, 04:22 PM

Originally Posted by billy ross

The solution to that is easy...fix the zoning, fix the union 'tax' in Philly...increas[e] jobs and the overall wealth in Philly...Ditto fix public safety and public schools.

Is that all we have to do?

**billy ross** · 08-27-2012, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by palvar

Is that all we have to do?

Each one we fix will have a marginal impact and makes it that much easier to fix the next one- fix any one of them and the ones remaining will be easier to fix. Plus, you don't need a 100% integrated plan - you can fix one at a time without absolutely needing to fix the others, although of course it'll be easier to make continual progress on all fronts. We ARE fixing the business taxes, the zoning, the union problems, the public schools. Not in one fell sweep, more like one step at a time, but it is happening, and I get the sense that we're gaining momentum. Companies are already setting up shop in the city over the suburbs because that is where the workers they want to hire - young, energetic, educated types - want to work in the city, not in the burbs. That is huge. Not long ago young people from the suburbs were afraid to live in the city - now that seems ancient history. Very recently companies which were afraid to be in the city are much less afraid to set up shop in the city and are dipping toes in the water. It seems to me that the city/suburb divide is easing. That's huge. There's tremendous wealth in Philly's suburbs that we've been too stupid to tap into, until now.

**LedZep2147** · 08-28-2012, 03:18 PM

Originally Posted by mixiboi

Well, all I know about them is it was once an Arcade in the 80s and been closed since with for sale signs come and go over the years...

Wow, can't believe it's still abandoned. I hung out in that arcade all the time.

**mixiboi** · 08-28-2012, 05:21 PM

I moved to Old City after it closed, but you could see the arcade machine inside still...

**thoth** · 08-28-2012, 07:03 PM

Originally Posted by LedZep2147

Wow, can't believe it's still abandoned. I hung out in that arcade all the time.

It's one of the greatest mysteries of old city. There is no reason for those buildings to be abandoned, but they are.

**thesomersteam** · 08-29-2012, 09:10 AM

Great discussion here. The original poster has a point in that the high-end inventory in No Libs has increased and will continue to increase as other projects are in the works. The neighborhood has done very well in absorbing this inventory in the past, but the question is will that continue ? My thinking is that it will be a project-by-project basis. Those excellent locations with super products should do well similar to Callahan Ward's recent successful project at 4th and Brown and a local developer who did a knock-out single home on the 800 block of Leithgow. The products with a high price tag have to entice the potential new homeowner with something spectacular. If not, the price will need to come down dramatically (or have some da** good marketing). The Stables has an established developer who has done many successful projects in both No Libs and Fishtown and of course the location is prime.

I do have a bit of a concern of the inventory creeping up in the higher end but as always, it will be very interesting how it plays out. The last thing we need are some projects not working out and going to auction but that is part of the process and the risk that developers take. Some projects will do very well, others so-so and some will fail.

**londoner** · 08-29-2012, 10:57 AM

I love the idea of a derelict/non-performing property tax. Give a certain time-frame for development, and then the taxes begin ballooning incrementally. We're growing to a point in CC where there's very little reason, outside of squatting developers, for empty parcels to exist due to lack of demand.

As everyone has pointed out, the South 2nd Street disaster zone is one of the more embarrassing things you'll see in the established core of a major city. How not one city official has walked past and gone, "hey this has been derelict and an eyesore 3 blocks from Indy Hall for decades...even though the entire neighborhood around it has gentrified and redeveloped--is there something smart we can do legislatively?"--is beyond me.

**JePense** · 08-29-2012, 11:23 AM

Originally Posted by londoner

I love the idea of a derelict/non-performing property tax. Give a certain time-frame for development, and then the taxes begin ballooning incrementally. We're growing to a point in CC where there's very little reason, outside of squatting developers, for empty parcels to exist due to lack of demand.

That's a GREAT idea! How about an even better idea? If the government doesn't like what you are doing with the land, it just takes it from you and gives it to someone it wants to have it. How about it comrade?