Could the AVI derail the housing market recovery in Philadelphia ?

**thesomersteam** · 08-12-2012, 09:57 AM

What is your opinion of the AVI ?

I have been quite buillish on the Philadelphia Housing Market but am concerned about the consequences once the AVI is implemented:

Will the AVI Derail the Housing Recovery in Philadelphia ? « TheSomersTeamBlog

**Eastcoast** · 08-12-2012, 10:42 AM

Originally Posted by thesomersteam

What is your opinion of the AVI ?

I have been quite buillish on the Philadelphia Housing Market but am concerned about the consequences once the AVI is implemented:

Will the AVI Derail the Housing Recovery in Philadelphia ? « TheSomersTeamBlog

You really are spamming at this point.

**Giavella Water** · 08-12-2012, 11:23 AM

Originally Posted by thesomersteam

What is your opinion of the AVI ?

I have been quite buillish on the Philadelphia Housing Market but am concerned about the consequences once the AVI is implemented:

Will the AVI Derail the Housing Recovery in Philadelphia ? « TheSomersTeamBlog

A blind man could see it's gonna ruin Philly's housing mkt. Can you say Detroit? I just love all the Nutter cheerleaders who stick their heads in the sand every time I mention the fact that they voted for him AGAIN for a second term.

**Eastcoast** · 08-12-2012, 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by Giavella Water

A blind man could see it's gonna ruin Philly's housing mkt. Can you say Detroit? I just love all the Nutter cheerleaders who stick their heads in the sand every time I mention the fact that they voted for him AGAIN for a second term.

Don't get sucked into an inane conversation meant only to drive traffic to a realtors website.

**thesomersteam** · 08-12-2012, 04:25 PM

Originally Posted by Giavella Water

A blind man could see it's gonna ruin Philly's housing mkt. Can you say Detroit? I just love all the Nutter cheerleaders who stick their heads in the sand every time I mention the fact that they voted for him AGAIN for a second term.

I was a Nutter cheerleader when he first ran for office and was energized in the beginning with "A new way, a new day." And was also thrilled with his campaign promise of reforming the BPT and NPT (which never happened). Have been much more disenchanted as of late with the lack of Governing as we now essentially have an absentee Mayor who is focused more on the National level (getting a cabinet position) and not on the local level. And his refusal to deal with or acknowledge the crime issues in Philly is startling. If he does not want to be Mayor anymore by governing and making tough decisions, then why not resign now? Either that or step up and get to work.

**seand** · 08-12-2012, 05:49 PM

If commercial landowners and low value homeowners sue over being overassessed how is that helping the city?

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**raider.adam** · 08-12-2012, 07:44 PM

Originally Posted by seand

If commercial landowners and low value homeowners sue over being overassessed how is that helping the city?

You are saying people who are being taxed unfairly should suck it up because it benefits others?

As for the original question: could it? Yes. Will it? Probably not because other areas will get cheaper.

**concourse** · 08-12-2012, 10:03 PM

Originally Posted by raider.adam

You are saying people who are being taxed unfairly should suck it up because it benefits others?

As for the original question: could it? Yes. Will it? Probably not because other areas will get cheaper.

I think he's saying that those groups could sue and then the courts would force AVI-like reassessments.

I also think as long as aggregate taxes stay the same it won't hurt the Philly market as much as it will just shift around where the good deals are.

**raider.adam** · 08-12-2012, 10:21 PM

Originally Posted by concourse

I think he's saying that those groups could sue and then the courts would force AVI-like reassessments.

By the time the court case goes to fruition, the City will have the procedures and numbers to go ahead with AVI anyway. The only point of the lawsuit would be to get previous tax bills reassessed. But I believe Harrisburg is passing legislation to prevent that anyway.

**JePense** · 08-13-2012, 09:31 AM

Originally Posted by thesomersteam

What is your opinion of the AVI ?

I have been quite buillish on the Philadelphia Housing Market but am concerned about the consequences once the AVI is implemented:

Will the AVI Derail the Housing Recovery in Philadelphia ? « TheSomersTeamBlog

Is it possible to discuss something in this forum without linking it to your f'ing commercial site? How is this not a violation of site policy?

If you had any sense at all, you would realize that your slacker advertising tactics are now doing you more harm than good. The "Hey, look at me! I care about the neighborhood! Check out my website and use my business" strategy isn't as sly as you might think. Not everyone is dumb enough to have to be a Realtor.

**seand** · 08-13-2012, 10:33 AM

Originally Posted by concourse

I think he's saying that those groups could sue and then the courts would force AVI-like reassessments.

I also think as long as aggregate taxes stay the same it won't hurt the Philly market as much as it will just shift around where the good deals are.

Exactly.

**seand** · 08-13-2012, 10:41 AM

Originally Posted by raider.adam

By the time the court case goes to fruition, the City will have the procedures and numbers to go ahead with AVI anyway. The only point of the lawsuit would be to get previous tax bills reassessed. But I believe Harrisburg is passing legislation to prevent that anyway.

You are assuming Council actually passes AVI next year. They could easily decide to kick it down the road. Apparently the Sommers Team amongst others thinks thats a good idea, basically because they know selling in currently underassessed areas and they don't want to have ot do the homework to learn how to sell in a slightly different market.

If Council balks in 2013 (which they still very well might) there would be every reason in the world for the overassessed to sue.

In Pittsburgh, even after losing in court, the politicos decided to stall, stall, stall implementation. It could easily happen here.

**raider.adam** · 08-13-2012, 10:47 AM

Originally Posted by seand

You are assuming Council actually passes AVI next year. They could easily decide to kick it down the road. Apparently the Sommers Team amongst others thinks thats a good idea, basically because they know selling in currently underassessed areas and they don't want to have ot do the homework to learn how to sell in a slightly different market.

If Council balks in 2013 (which they still very well might) there would be every reason in the world for the overassessed to sue.

In Pittsburgh, even after losing in court, the politicos decided to stall, stall, stall implementation. It could easily happen here.

Council actually doesn't have the ability to put it off. If Nutter supplies the new assessment numbers in the fall, Council has to use those numbers when they address the budget and tax rate. It also means Council will have multiple sessions to deal with the ancillary protections legislation.

If Nutter doesn't put forward the new assessment numbers in the fall, then I would be concerned and threaten lawsuit to make sure they go forward. Of course nothing stops groups like the Chamber of Commerce to let City Hall know they will be watching and ready to file.

**seand** · 08-13-2012, 10:56 AM

I thought there was legislative approval required to actually implement the new assessments. Are you sure?

I agree that if they can sell the assessments as "out of their hands" Council will happily pass the buck, while implementing any number of protections both symbollic and substantive.

**Eastcoast** · 08-13-2012, 11:12 AM

In light of the looming real estate crisis about to be caused by the evil AVI I would suggest that our community friends, our neighbors the ornaments of our society...the Realtors reduce their commission to 1.5%.

Somersteam please let us know when you will be lowering your commission structure across the board in an effort to help the very communities that you care so much for.

Thank you in advance.

**raider.adam** · 08-13-2012, 11:43 AM

Originally Posted by seand

I thought there was legislative approval required to actually implement the new assessments. Are you sure?

I agree that if they can sell the assessments as "out of their hands" Council will happily pass the buck, while implementing any number of protections both symbollic and substantive.

I thought supplying the assessments was an executive branch function, much like supplying revenue projections. Council can bitch about it, but they have to accept it. (I could be wrong, but I didn't think Council had a choice.)

The issue for Council was that they get stuck setting the rate though. They get a bunch of the pain if someone's tax bill goes up. That is why Council was fretting about gentrification protections, homestead rebates, etc.

Of course if they don't like the assessment numbers, doesn't mean they can't blow up the budget from the Mayor by refusing to vote for it and other things.

**seand** · 08-13-2012, 12:01 PM

I'm not sure. I thought Council had to act to approve switching over to a new "non-fractional" type of assessment. It would be better if they didn't.

Well, of the things they can do - high homestead exemptions across the board actually cause more pain to the folks living in $300k + houses who are the most severely impacted by switching over to AVI and grumbling the loudest about AVI right now.

When they looked at "ease-ins" one of the bizarre things is that in the short term it actually raised taxes at first temporarily on the folks who are currently over-assessed instead of smoothly gradually lowering them.

I think it will be income dependent exemptions a la Clarke in the end if they can't work out the counterintuitive kinks in "ease-ins".

**ArcticSplash** · 08-13-2012, 12:08 PM

AVI is a next-year problem.

I'm more interested in whether or not PICA is going to force some budget realignment this week.

**seand** · 08-13-2012, 12:23 PM

Originally Posted by ArcticSplash

AVI is a next-year problem.

I'm more interested in whether or not PICA is going to force some budget realignment this week.

Nutter's claims that they will be able to overturn the firefighter's arbitration is not impossible but far from the most likely scenario. PICA should send that part of the budget back as too rosy.