2010 Census: Should we expect the worst?

[Sharkfood]

The numbers are trickling in from other cities and it doesn't look good.

Baltimore - - a city I regard as stable to slightly growing - - reported a significant
population drop (636,000 to 620,000, I think).

Chicago's numbers were released yesterday and the Census Bureau found a decline
of over 200,000. This is rather extraordinary to me because the amount of residential construction around the city during the last 10 years is staggering.

I'm afraid it's going to be bad news when Philadelphia's numbers are released. Of course, we can question the accuracy of the count, but still, it's not going to be favorable press. Here is a report on Chicago:

Census data show that the city of Chicago continued a trend it's followed steadily since 1950, losing nearly seven percent of its population in the last ten years.

The population according to the April 2010 census was 2,695,598, a decline of more than 200,000 people as compares to the year 2000 total of 2,896,016.

[MariusPontmercy]

Both those numbers were being anticipated in advance of the census.

Although that is quite strange for Chicago. The estimates for the city coming out in 2008 put the decline at only around 1.5%

[eldondre]

I think you're impression of baltimore is inaccurate, especially over a ten year period. it was recently ranked as one of the most overpriced cities. it may have bottomed out but that's a recent development. philly is further along in its downtown revitalization. worth noting, baltimore isn't a self contained county. chicago was always the weakest of the turnaround. just goes to show millenium park can't make up for crime and schools. fwiw..DC showed strong growth

[Hospitalitygirl]

40,000 new jobs? 100,000 new residents? Plan says it could happen | Philadelphia Daily News | 02/16/2011

This says otherwise.

Still I will believe it when I see someone with the temerity to take on BPT, and finally eliminate it.

[eldondre]

40,000 new jobs? 100,000 new residents? Plan says it could happen | Philadelphia Daily News | 02/16/2011

This says otherwise.

Still I will believe it when I see someone with the temerity to take on BPT, and finally eliminate it.

the state of PA could have its best decade in either of our lifetimes if it plays its cards right. I think pittsburgh has bottomed out, it's job market is relatively healthy, and it appears to be reviving its core. Philly has long been the hole in the doughnut but with that reversed, sepa should see stronger growth (of course, philly is still the hole in the jobs doughnut). in a way, philly is holding the whole state back.

I sensed there was weakness in chicago because they didn't cover the basics like crime as they did in ny..and I have a friend there who said living there was getting harder. it was long past time for daley to move on, I think, but it goes to show how misleading a big flashy project like millenium park can be. I'm still nervous about the numbers but these two cities problems don't make me any more nervous than I was before. I think the more rapid regional growth is largely because philly is no longer losing population to offset growth in the suburbs.

[billy ross]

the state of PA could have its best decade in either of our lifetimes if it plays its cards right. I think pittsburgh has bottomed out, it's job market is relatively healthy, and it appears to be reviving its core. Philly has long been the hole in the doughnut but with that reversed, sepa should see stronger growth (of course, philly is still the hole in the jobs doughnut). in a way, philly is holding the whole state back.

I sensed there was weakness in chicago because they didn't cover the basics like crime as they did in ny..and I have a friend there who said living there was getting harder. it was long past time for daley to move on, I think, but it goes to show how misleading a big flashy project like millenium park can be. I'm still nervous about the numbers but these two cities problems don't make me any more nervous than I was before. I think the more rapid regional growth is largely because philly is no longer losing population to offset growth in the suburbs.

With the continually evolving oil and gas drilling technology, I believe that PA, home of Carbon County and the first oil well in the world, will once again be an energy giant. That should make a huge difference. PA still hasn't replaced coal, steel, and railroads as producers of wealth like in our heyday. Now we're getting one back. I'd really love to see PA become more dynamic, where wealth is produced in staggering quantities again. Just look at the State Capitol and at City Hall, and imagine the wealth it took to build them simultaneously. PA never became poor, but it stopped producing the wealth in such great quantities (see Bethlehem), and that really hurt the state. We could no longer 'afford' things like before. I really hope that we are coming out of that.

[phillyaggie]

the state of PA could have its best decade in either of our lifetimes if it plays its cards right. I think pittsburgh has bottomed out, it's job market is relatively healthy, and it appears to be reviving its core. Philly has long been the hole in the doughnut but with that reversed, sepa should see stronger growth (of course, philly is still the hole in the jobs doughnut). in a way, philly is holding the whole state back.

I sensed there was weakness in chicago because they didn't cover the basics like crime as they did in ny..and I have a friend there who said living there was getting harder. it was long past time for daley to move on, I think, but it goes to show how misleading a big flashy project like millenium park can be. I'm still nervous about the numbers but these two cities problems don't make me any more nervous than I was before. I think the more rapid regional growth is largely because philly is no longer losing population to offset growth in the suburbs.

Various articles and data seem to point to Pittsburgh not only having turned itself around but doing much better than Philadelphia. And Pittsburgh is still home to some of the iconic brands of American industry: Alcoa, PPG, U.S. Steel, Consol Energy, and PNC. I'm sure there are other, smaller names but those are some heavy hitters that didn't decamp to the 'burbs.

[gren]

Year:

Census	est2000	est2001	est2002	est2003	est2004	est2005	est2006	est2007	est2008	est2009

Baltimore:

651154	648654	645253	642246	642324	641004	640064	640961	640150	638091	637418

Philadelphia:

1517550	1513800	1512507	1510550	1510068	1514658	1517628	1520251	1530031	1540351	1547297

Est = Population Estimate (July 1)
Census = 2000 Census (April 1)

So, unless we lose a ton of people in the last year--more than any other year in the decade--then we'll have increased population for the first time since the 1950 census. Here is the Census Bureau page for the data.

Census has 2010 Baltimore Data as 620,961 which is a rather steep fall from the 2009 estimate.

[phillyaggie]

With the continually evolving oil and gas drilling technology, I believe that PA, home of Carbon County and the first oil well in the world, will once again be an energy giant. That should make a huge difference. PA still hasn't replaced coal, steel, and railroads as producers of wealth like in our heyday. Now we're getting one back. I'd really love to see PA become more dynamic, where wealth is produced in staggering quantities again. Just look at the State Capitol and at City Hall, and imagine the wealth it took to build them simultaneously. PA never became poor, but it stopped producing the wealth in such great quantities (see Bethlehem), and that really hurt the state. We could no longer 'afford' things like before. I really hope that we are coming out of that.

WV and eastern KY have had coal mines for 100 years. They don't ever seem to get to even middle class, nevermind getting rich.

[phillyaggie]

40,000 new jobs? 100,000 new residents? Plan says it could happen | Philadelphia Daily News | 02/16/2011

This says otherwise.

Still I will believe it when I see someone with the temerity to take on BPT, and finally eliminate it.

Philly may have added about 40,000+ new residents in the past decade itself. It's not hard to tack on another 100,000 in 25 more years.

And I'm guessing if only 40,000 new jobs are created, the other 60,000 new residents are going to be kids or elderly? Prison population?

[billy ross]

Philly may have added about 40,000+ new residents in the past decade itself. It's not hard to tack on another 100,000 in 25 more years.

And I'm guessing if only 40,000 new jobs are created, the other 60,000 new residents are going to be kids or elderly? Prison population?

Jobs growth in Philly's burbs? While it would be great to get more jobs in Philly, IMO the trend of the past decade has been Phiily grabbing a larger percentage of suburban workers. This has been great for Philly. I see this intensifying.

Jobs growth in the burbs is great for Philly. Jobs growth in Philly would be even better.

[eldondre]

Various articles and data seem to point to Pittsburgh not only having turned itself around but doing much better than Philadelphia. And Pittsburgh is still home to some of the iconic brands of American industry: Alcoa, PPG, U.S. Steel, Consol Energy, and PNC. I'm sure there are other, smaller names but those are some heavy hitters that didn't decamp to the 'burbs.

starkist.
they seem to be turning a corner though I doubt it'll show in this census any more than ours showed in the last census. The difference there is that Pittsburgh and it's home county are going to have to be the leaders. still, someone is proposing a 15 story office building there. new.

Los Angeles-based Hertz Investment Group plans to retain the four-building complex near the Point in hopes of capitalizing on Pittsburgh's strong real estate market, president Gary Horwitz said Tuesday...Mr. Horwitz said Pittsburgh currently is performing better that 11 other markets where Hertz has investments, including Cincinnati; Columbus, Ohio; St. Louis; Kansas City, Mo.; Indianapolis; New Orleans; and Los Angeles.

If Hertz sold the property, it probably wouldn't be able to find another market in which to reinvest the profit that is as strong as Pittsburgh, he said. "There isn't a place to put the money that's better than where it is," he said.He also noted that the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Pittsburgh, New York and San Francisco had the biggest increase in average office rents in the 2010 fourth quarter. That's an indication of the strong demand for Downtown office space

Read more: Gateway Center pulled off the block

[Burholme06]

If you read the following WSJ article about Chicago, you'll note that the biggest population loss was among African Americans. I think we have seen a decent outmigration as well as evidenced by the demographic changes in some bordering Delco towns over the last 10 years. Chicago has seen growth in and around it's downtown and losses outside of it. Seems very similar to Philadelphi to me. Let's hope for the best.

Chicago Population Sinks to 1920 Level - WSJ.com

[eldondre]

If you read the following WSJ article about Chicago, you'll note that the biggest population loss was among African Americans. I think we have seen a decent outmigration as well as evidenced by the demographic changes in some bordering Delco towns over the last 10 years. Chicago has seen growth in and around it's downtown and losses outside of it. Seems very similar to Philadelphi to me. Let's hope for the best.

Chicago Population Sinks to 1920 Level - WSJ.com

The exodus took a big chunk out of the city's black population in particular, shrinking it to 887,608 from 1,065,009, according to William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.

"The black decline is really powering the city loss," Mr. Frey said, calling it "part of the great reverse migration to the South."

interesting, reverse migration didn't impact most mid-atlantic cities like philly, DC, baltimore.
this article pegs philly at +79k in that category
South Draws U.S. Blacks - WSJ.com

[Burholme06]

interesting, reverse migration didn't impact most mid-atlantic cities like philly, DC, baltimore.
this article pegs philly at +79k in that category
South Draws U.S. Blacks - WSJ.com

Very interesting but these are metro gains/losses. To put the 80,000 person increase into persepctive, we'd really need to know how much the Philadelphia region gained in total population. If the black poplulation in the Delware valley represents 20% of the total and the total population increased by 400,000, then that 80,0000 person increase becomes just part of the larger trend.

[MariusPontmercy]

There has been a trend of African Americans leaving the city for some time, however that just recently was reflected in census data, since it was not yet overcoming other trends.

2009 2008 2000 1990
White 43.6% 42.5% 45.0% 53.5%
—Non-Hispanic 39.6% 39.0% 42.5% 52.1%
Black or African American 42.5% 43.5% 43.2% 39.9%
—Non-Hispanic 41.6% 42.7% 42.6% 39.3%

[Hospitalitygirl]

Philly Fed

This is promising.

[CityMaps]

still, someone is proposing a 15 story office building there. new.

So? Liberty Property Tower @ 8th & Walnut. 12 stories. Office. Yeah, it's office for Penn Hospital, but that is leased space from Liberty that may be non-Ed/Med office later.

You seem obsessed with that project as a sign of something, but it is on downtown Pittsburgh's main plaza and is only the second new office building in the Golden Triangle since the mid 80s.

[eldondre]

So? Liberty Property Tower @ 8th & Walnut. 12 stories. Office. Yeah, it's office for Penn Hospital, but that is leased space from Liberty that may be non-Ed/Med office later.

You seem obsessed with that project as a sign of something, but it is on downtown Pittsburgh's main plaza and is only the second new office building in the Golden Triangle since the mid 80s.

obsessed? now you're being a little ridiculous. I suppose you take it to mean there is no interest in downtown office construction. or perhaps it's interesting that one would profitably be able to build at $25/ sq ft. it's the second one proposed in as many weeks. what non ed/med growth is there?

[eldondre]

Very interesting but these are metro gains/losses. To put the 80,000 person increase into persepctive, we'd really need to know how much the Philadelphia region gained in total population. If the black poplulation in the Delware valley represents 20% of the total and the total population increased by 400,000, then that 80,0000 person increase becomes just part of the larger trend.

some wondering in baltimore (I think pittsburgh will not see an increase)

Don't swallow the "it's the least-bad population loss in decades" spin for city officials. Baltimore's loss of 4.6 percent of its population -- 30,000 people -- is a very disappointing result. People were hoping that revivals east of the harbor and in midtown would make up for declining neighborhoods. They were hoping that one of Baltimore's biggest problems, its schools, would cease to be such a large disincentive for people figuring where to live. The thinking was that aging baby boomers, having educated their kids in the suburbs, would move back into the city once the kids left home.

You should criticize the city for not doing a better job of competing for the growing Hispanic population. But the biggest factors in the population decline probably continue to be taxes and schools. Even with schools less of a factor for empty nesters, the higher property taxes and insurance rates they must pay are a big turnoff. Baltimore is one of the first big cities to have its 2010 Census results released. It will be interesting to see whether the population-gain hopes of other rust-belt towns -- Pittsburgh, Philly etc. -- will be realized.

For what it's worth, Baltimore also lost almost 50,000 jobs last decade, although it seems to have showed a rare gain of about 5,000 last year, according to the Labor Department.

Jay Hancock's blog: Taxes, schools keep pushing people from Baltimore - Business news: Stock markets, banks and economic observations with columnist Jay Hancock - baltimoresun.com